缺乏指引，生猪震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs has slightly recovered but the pressure is average, and the demand is in the peak season but has declined from the high level. The supply - demand relationship shows a weak balance, and the fundamentals have not changed much. Therefore, the live pig price will mainly fluctuate [6] Summary by Directory 1. 周度要点小结 - The live pig price fluctuated slightly downwards, with the main contract 2603 falling 0.21% weekly [6][10] - According to Mysteel data, the sample enterprises' slaughter plan in January decreased month - on - month. The slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms has recovered compared with that after the Spring Festival, but the overall slaughter volume is average. After the New Year's Day, the demand for cured meat decreased, and the terminal consumption tolerance was limited after the price increase. The slaughter enterprises'开工 rate dropped from the high level [6] 2. 期现市场 Futures Market - The futures fluctuated this week, and the main contract 2603 fell 0.21% weekly [8][10] - As of January 9, the net short position of the top 20 holders in live pig futures was 51,549 lots, a decrease of 49 lots from last week, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 918, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous week [16] - The price difference between lh2603 and lh2605 contracts was - 445, and the price difference between lh2603 and lh2607 contracts was - 1,125 [20] Spot Market - The basis of the live pig January contract this week was 950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 1,130 yuan/ton [25] - The national average live pig market price this week was 12.45 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.15 yuan/kg from last week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 24.48 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.76 yuan/kg from last week [35] - According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in the week of December 31, the national pork market price was 22.80 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.32 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows last week was 32.47 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week [39] - As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.40, an increase of 0.16 from the previous week [44] 3. 产业情况 Upstream - In October 2025, the official inventory of reproductive sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons (1.12%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the inventory of reproductive sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.18% month - on - month and 0.47% year - on - year, and that in 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 1.19% month - on - month and 1.54% year - on - year [49] - At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig inventory of 123 large - scale farms decreased 0.23% month - on - month and increased 4.72% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased 0.09% month - on - month and increased 8.17% year - on - year [53] - According to Mysteel data, in December, the live pig slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms increased 3.68% month - on - month and 6.64% year - on - year, and that of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased 6.39% month - on - month and 13.67% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs this week was 123.32 kg, a decrease of 0.03 kg from last week [58] Industry - As of January 9, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 2.31 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 40.03 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was 11.54 yuan/head, with the loss narrowing by 23.05 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.29 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - crossbred chicken breeding profit was 0.25 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 yuan/head [63] - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.12%. In November, the pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [68] - As of the week of January 9, the price of白条 chicken was 13.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week. As of the week of January 8, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.61 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg from last week [72] - As of January 9, the spot price of soybean meal was 3,248.46 yuan/ton, an increase of 79.03 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the corn price was 2,351.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.22 yuan/ton from the previous week [77] - As of January 9, the closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange live pig feed cost index was 906.26, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.34 yuan/kg, the same as last week [80] - As of November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons. In November, the sales of piglet feed increased 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [85] - As of December 2025, China's CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year [89] Downstream - In the second week of 2026, the slaughter enterprises'开工 rate was 36.63%, a decrease of 3.71 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. The fresh sales rate was 87.54%, a decrease of 0.59% from last week, and the frozen product storage rate was 17.62%, a decrease of 0.29% from last week [92] - As of November 2025, the slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 39.57 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.21% and a year - on - year increase of 24.04%. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [97] Live Pig Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [98]