瑞达期货尿素市场周报-20260109

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market rose strongly this week, with the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized granules in Shandong reaching 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton by Thursday, up 55 yuan/ton from January 4th. The urea market is expected to have limited short - term fluctuations. The production is likely to increase next week, while the agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The short - term de - stocking of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,750 - 1,800 yuan [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.6% this week [9] - As of January 9th, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 23 [12] - As of January 9th, there were 12,850 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 469 from last week [19] Group 3: Spot Market - As of January 8th, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 8th, the FOB price of urea in China was 400 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [27] - As of January 8th, the urea basis was - 16 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week [32] Group 4: Upstream - As of January 7th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [35] - As of January 8th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [35] Group 5: Industry - As of January 8th, China's urea production was 1371,600 tons, up 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 2.93% from the previous period [38] - As of January 8th, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons, a decline of 18.60%. As of January 7th, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,022,200 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [41] - In November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decline of 49.95% [44] Group 6: Downstream - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points. Next week, the enterprise start - up rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [47] - As of January 8th, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 54.35%, an increase of 6.70 percentage points from last week [47]