沪铜市场周报：需求谨慎VS宏观支撑，沪铜或将震荡运行-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - Market Performance: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +3.23% and an amplitude of 6.85%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 101,410 yuan/ton [6]. - International Situation: US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed the hope to lower interest rates, and Fed Governor Milan expected a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026 [6]. - Domestic Situation: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, all rising to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [6]. - Fundamentals: The copper concentrate TC processing index is running at a low level, and the domestic copper mine supply is still tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. Smelters are still actively producing due to high copper and by - product prices, with a slight increase expected in January production. However, downstream procurement is cautious due to high copper prices, and new orders are limited in the off - season, leading to light trading in the spot market and an accumulation of industrial inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 1,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,715 yuan/ton. The contract price was 101,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,170 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 188,674 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 19,572 lots [12]. - Spot Market: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,390 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 790 yuan/ton [18]. - Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 46 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 68,487 lots, a decrease of 22,623 lots from last week [22]. 3.3 Option Market - As of January 9, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.669, a decrease of 0.0002 from last week [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Price and Processing Fee: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton [31]. - Import and Spread: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth of 3.05% and a year - on - year growth of 12.55%. The tax - included scrap - refined copper price spread was 6,022.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,197.27 yuan/ton [36]. - Production and Inventory: In October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Supply - Side: In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth of 2.66% and a year - on - year growth of 9.09%. The global monthly production of refined copper was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth of 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September. The monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was 1,009.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,572.42 yuan/ton. The LME total inventory decreased by 4,250 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 15,116 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29,441 tons. The total social inventory was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from last week [43][49][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - Demand - Side: In November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61]. - Application - Side: In November 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, refrigerators, and freezers increased by 5.5%, 5.6%, and 3.6% year - on - year respectively, while the production of air conditioners and color TVs decreased by 23.4% and 5% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [65][71]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78].