合成橡胶市场周报-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - This week, most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - In the near future, the supply of butadiene rubber will remain high. The butadiene rubber market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of manufacturers have improved. However, there is still some inventory waiting to be picked up, and the overall inventory level has changed little. Due to the continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials, the supply price of butadiene rubber has increased significantly. However, due to the resistance of downstream buyers to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of manufacturers and traders may increase in the short term [8]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [7]. - Market review: Most domestic butadiene rubber plants were operating at high loads, with sufficient supply. The price of butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 11,000 to 12,200 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply will remain high. Raw material prices will boost sales, but inventory may increase due to downstream resistance to high prices. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market - The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 4.37% [12]. - As of January 9, the 2 - 3 spread of butadiene rubber was - 50 [18]. - As of January 9, the butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 4,530 tons, a decrease of 30 tons from last week [21]. - Spot Market - As of January 8, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from last week [26]. - As of January 8, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream - As of January 8, the CFR middle price of naphtha in Japan was 540.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.23 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF middle price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 735 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - As of January 9, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.7% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week [32]. - Industry Middle - Stream - In December 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber production was 143,600 tons, an increase of 13,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97% [35]. - As of January 8, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 2.35% from last week [35]. - As of January 8, the domestic butadiene rubber production profit was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of January 9, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory was 33,120 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons from last week [42]. - Downstream - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of domestic semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [45]. - In November 2025, China's tire export volume was 688,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40% and a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. From January to November, China's cumulative tire export volume was 7.7321 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.51%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 237,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.04%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of passenger car tires was 2.9637 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.67%; the export volume of truck and bus tires was 418,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.00% and a year - on - year increase of 6.65%. From January to November, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 4.445 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.64% [48]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information provided.