铁矿石市场周报：港口续增、厂库偏低铁矿期价震荡偏强-20260109

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - environment shows that the US Congress Budget Office expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly this year, and the central bank in China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The industry situation indicates that after the holiday, more steel mills' blast furnaces resumed production, iron - water output increased, and the spot supply of iron ore was relatively stable. Although the port inventory exceeded 170 million tons, the in - plant inventory remained at a low level, and the firm spot price still supported the futures price. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions in the I2605 contract after a correction, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Summary Price - As of the close on January 9, the futures price of the iron ore main contract was 814.5 (+25) yuan/ton, and the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 869 (+20) yuan/dry ton [5]. Shipment - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 32.137 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.634 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 27.427 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.169 million tons [5]. Arrival - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 28.247 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 969,000 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 27.564 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.129 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.823 million tons [5]. Demand - The daily average iron - water output was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [5]. Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.2848 million tons. The inventory of imported ore at 247 steel mills was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10.8449 million tons [5]. Profitability - The profitability rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.99 percentage points [5]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the I2605 contract fluctuated strongly. The price of the I2605 contract was stronger than that of the I2609 contract. On the 9th, the price difference was 21.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [12]. Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions - On January 9, the number of iron ore warehouse receipts at the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 1,600, a week - on - week increase of 300. The net short position of the top 20 holders of the iron ore futures contract was 20,258, an increase of 1,592 compared with the previous week [19]. Spot Price - On January 9, the price of 60.8% PB fines at Qingdao Port was reported at 869 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/dry ton. This week, the spot price of iron ore was weaker than the futures price. On the 9th, the basis was 55 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [25]. 3. Industry Situation Arrival Volume - From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume at 47 ports, 45 ports, and six northern ports in China increased [28]. Port Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 170.4444 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.2265 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3696 million tons, a decrease of 325,000 tons. In terms of components, the inventory of Australian ore increased by 1.1419 million tons, the inventory of Brazilian ore increased by 916,500 tons, and the inventory of traded ore increased by 3.3529 million tons [32]. Steel Mill Inventory - This week, the total inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills in China was 89.8959 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 430,500 tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8328 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.73 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 days [32]. Inventory Availability Days - As of January 8, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore for large and medium - sized steel mills in China was 19 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On January 8, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,718, a week - on - week decrease of 159 [36]. Import Volume and Mine Capacity Utilization - In November 2025, China's import of iron ore and its concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 769,000 tons compared with October, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1.139202 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. As of December 26, the capacity utilization rate of 266 sample mines was 58.76%, a decrease of 1.41% compared with the previous period; the daily average output of fine powder was 371,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 89,000 tons; the inventory was 461,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 133,000 tons [39]. Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Output - In November 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output was 83.028 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to November, the cumulative output was 923.622 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. In November, the output of iron ore concentrates from 433 iron ore mining enterprises in China was 22.811 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 129,000 tons, a decrease of 0.6%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 252.471 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.576 million tons, a decrease of 3.3% [42]. 4. Downstream Situation Crude Steel Output - In November 2025, China's crude steel output was 69.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.9%. From January to November, the cumulative crude steel output was 891.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0% [45]. Steel Exports - In November 2025, China's steel exports were 9.98 million tons, an increase of 198,000 tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%; a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, turning from a decline to an increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative steel exports were 107.717 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.1 percentage points compared with the previous month [45]. Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Iron - Water Output - On January 9, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79.31%, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.13 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.80 percentage points. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.295 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 51,300 tons [48]. 5. Options Market - The high iron ore port inventory and the correction of finished products will limit the rebound space of ore prices, but the overall spot price remains firm, which will still support the futures price in the medium and long term. It is recommended to consider buying call options on the I2605 contract after adjustment [51].