软商品日报-20260109

Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - Sugar: The strengthening of the US dollar led to the liquidation of long positions in ICE raw sugar. The spot prices in Nanning and Kunming in China remained stable. There were changes in the crushing and export data of India and Brazil, a decrease in China's imports, and a year-on-year decline in sugar production in Guangxi. In the short term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, but upward pressure is gradually emerging [3]. - Cotton: The market is currently dominated by the strong expectation of tight supply - demand in the new year and a decline in next year's production. However, the downstream cotton yarn circulation has slowed down, and the cotton price has risen strongly while the cotton yarn price has struggled to follow. The spinning profit of yarn mills has been squeezed, and the increasing gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices may increase the possibility of imported yarn substitution. Some long - position funds in cotton have also left the market for profit - taking. The cotton planting industry chain conference in Xinjiang may announce policy optimization directions for 2026, which may increase the volatility of cotton prices. If the subsidy policy for cotton planting in Xinjiang does not meet expectations, the cotton price may fall again due to the departure of funds, but there is still upward potential in the future under the unchanged supply expectation for this year [14]. - Apple: Recently, the market has refocused on the shortage of deliverable goods, and both near - and far - month contracts are expected to rise further. Additionally, as the pre - Spring Festival stocking period approaches, cold storage facilities are gradually packing goods, and attention should be paid to the stocking situation [19]. - Jujube: In the short term, jujube prices may remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to downstream purchasing. In the long term, the overall supply - demand of new - season jujubes in China is relatively loose, and prices will continue to face downward pressure [27]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Sugar - Futures Prices and Spreads: On January 9, 2026, SR01 closed at 5310 with a daily increase of 0.19% and a weekly increase of 0.87%. Other contracts also showed different price changes and spreads [4]. - Basis: The basis of Nanning - SR01 on January 8, 2026, was 50, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 39. The basis of Kunming - SR01 was - 80, with a daily increase of 7 and a weekly decrease of 29. Similar data were provided for other contracts [9]. - Import Prices: The quota - in price of Brazilian sugar on January 9, 2026, was 4079, with a daily increase of 50 and a weekly decrease of 67. The quota - out price was 5168, with a daily increase of 65 and a weekly decrease of 88. Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [12]. 3.2 Cotton - Futures Prices: On January 9, 2026, cotton 01 closed at 14730, down 110 or 0.74%; cotton 05 closed at 14675, down 65 or 0.44%; cotton 09 closed at 14860, down 70 or 0.47%. For cotton yarn, 01 closed at 20225, 05 closed at 20760, down 85 or 0.41%, and 09 closed at 20970, up 60 or 0.29% [15]. - Spreads: The cotton basis was 1255, up 3; cotton 01 - 05 was 55, down 45; cotton 05 - 09 was - 185, up 5; cotton 09 - 01 was 130, up 40; the flower - yarn spread was 6060, unchanged; the domestic - foreign cotton spread was 3393, up 243; the domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 26, unchanged [15]. 3.3 Apple - Futures and Spot Prices: On January 9, 2026, AP01 closed at 9999, unchanged with a weekly increase of 0.49%; AP03 closed at 9742, up 1.19% with a weekly increase of 4.8%. Spot prices for different varieties of apples remained mostly unchanged [20]. - Spreads and Other Indicators: AP01 - 05 was 468, up 12.5% with a weekly increase of 2.18%. The main contract basis was - 457, up 36.01% with a weekly decrease of 1271.79% [20]. 3.4 Jujube - Futures Spreads: Information on jujube futures spreads (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) over different time periods was provided, showing historical price differences [28][30]. - Price Trends: The price trends of Xinjiang jujube main - producing areas and main - selling areas were presented, including the prices in Aksu, Alar, Kashgar, Hebei, and Henan [31].