2025年上海房地产市场回顾

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the Shanghai real estate market, with a focus on the resilience of the TMT sector and emerging consumer trends [4][14]. Core Insights - The Shanghai office market saw a net absorption of approximately 390,000 square meters in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 76.6%, driven primarily by the TMT sector, which accounted for 20% of the demand [7][14]. - The retail market experienced a total net absorption of 678,000 square meters, with fashion and outdoor brands leading the growth, while the logistics sector achieved a historical high in net absorption at 1.07 million square meters [17][26]. - The investment market showed signs of recovery with 97 transactions recorded, totaling 47.4 billion RMB, despite a year-on-year decline in transaction volume and value [43][49]. Office Market Summary - In 2025, the Shanghai office market recorded 11 new projects with a total area of 792,000 square meters, but the overall pre-leasing rate was below 10%, leading to a vacancy rate increase of 1.2 percentage points to 23.3% [7][9]. - The TMT sector surpassed the financial industry in demand, with significant contributions from gaming, e-commerce, and AI companies [7][10]. - Major districts such as Lujiazui and Wujiaochang showed strong demand, with Lujiazui accounting for 7.8% of the market share [8][11]. Retail Market Summary - The retail market saw 708,000 square meters of new supply, with fashion apparel driving 43.4% of the demand, particularly from outdoor and Korean brands [17][18]. - The dining sector maintained a steady demand, accounting for 21% of the market, with a notable rise in health-oriented food options [18][19]. - The market is expected to see over 1.29 million square meters of new supply in 2026, driven by policies promoting smart experiences and health consumption [22]. Logistics Market Summary - The logistics market continued its high supply trend with 9 new projects totaling 899,000 square meters, despite a 43% year-on-year decrease in new supply [26]. - Net absorption reached a historical high of 1.07 million square meters, primarily driven by e-commerce and third-party logistics [26][27]. - The average rental price in the logistics sector decreased by 17.3% to 1.19 RMB per square meter per day [28]. Investment Market Summary - The investment market recorded a total of 97 transactions in 2025, with a total value of 47.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 26% year-on-year decline [43][49]. - Institutional investors led the market with a 40% share of transaction value, focusing on both office and rental residential assets [44]. - The market is transitioning towards a more refined focus on asset quality, with the introduction of commercial real estate REITs enhancing liquidity [49].