建信期货能源化工周报-20260109

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly - Date: January 9, 2026 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The oil market is affected by geopolitical events such as the US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran. Crude oil supply has an increasing expectation, and the market faces a large inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026. Oil prices still have a risk of decline [7][10]. - The asphalt market has relatively balanced supply and demand, and the raw material end has certain support. It is expected that asphalt prices may run strongly. It is recommended to consider going long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. - The polyester market is in a demand - off season. PTA is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and its price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a concentrated inventory accumulation before and after the Spring Festival, and its price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. - The price of polyester staple fiber is expected to decline due to weakening cost and poor supply - demand structure [66]. - The polyolefin market is expected to rise first and then fall under the drive of supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle [84]. - The polysilicon market has an upward price but no improvement in fundamentals. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. - The industrial silicon market has a neutral performance. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes and is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [154]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - WTI crude oil closed at $58.28/barrel, up 1.66%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.79/barrel, up 3.27%; SC crude oil closed at 432.7 yuan/barrel, up 0.12%. The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the oil price. The market faces inventory accumulation pressure in Q1 2026, and oil prices have a risk of decline [7]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The US takeover of Venezuela's oil industry and the turmoil in Iran have affected the supply and demand of the oil market. The US crude oil inventory decreased, but the refined oil inventory increased. The inventory accumulation speed in Q1 2026 slowed down slightly [10]. Asphalt 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The BU2603 contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 4.45%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased. The supply of asphalt may decrease, and the demand is divided between the north and the south. It is recommended to go long on asphalt and short on crude oil [30][31]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The cost is affected by the oil market. The domestic asphalt device maintenance loss increased, and the average operating load rate decreased. The production profit increased. The demand is divided between the north and the south, and the inventory increased [33][34][35]. Polyester 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The cost support for PTA is weakening, and the demand is decreasing. It is expected to transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, and the price may decline slightly. Ethylene glycol is expected to maintain inventory accumulation, and the price may have a small - scale callback [57][58]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is decreasing. The supply of PTA is expected to decrease, and the price may decline. The ethylene glycol industry's operating load rate decreased, the inventory increased, and the profit increased slightly [59][60][62]. Polyester Staple Fiber 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The price of polyester staple fiber in the East China market declined last week. This week, the cost support is weak, the supply is loose, and the demand is in an off - season. It is expected that the price will decline [66]. 2. Main Driving Forces - The downstream consumption demand is weakening. The operating load rate of the polyester staple fiber industry is stable, and the supply is loose. The cost and supply - demand factors drag down the price [67][68]. Polyolefin 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The futures and spot prices of polyolefin increased last week. The supply pressure of polypropylene decreased, and the supply pressure of plastics increased slightly. The demand is in an off - season, and it is expected to rise first and then fall [76][84]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Polypropylene has more temporary maintenance, and the production decreases. The production of polyethylene increases slightly. The production profit of different raw materials has different changes. The inventory of two - oil companies decreased, and the downstream operating rate is divided [85][90][99]. Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - The price of polysilicon increased, but the fundamentals have no improvement expectation. The downstream is in a cycle of production reduction, and the terminal demand is in an off - season [118]. 2. Overview of the Photovoltaic Industry's Fundamentals - The market supervision department has taken regulatory measures. The prices of the photovoltaic industry chain are running strongly, but the supply exceeds demand, and the inventory removal resistance is large [119][121]. Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Review and Outlook - The price of industrial silicon futures declined, and the trading volume and open interest increased. The supply is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range [138]. 2. Overview of the Industrial Silicon's Fundamentals - The prices of the industrial silicon industry chain are running strongly. The production of industrial silicon is at a seasonal low, the demand is weak, the export is stable, and the inventory is slowly accumulating [139][140][141]. Pulp 1. Pulp Market Review and Outlook - The price of pulp futures declined slightly. The spot prices of imported pulp mostly increased. The fundamentals of pulp changed little, and it is expected to operate in a volatile adjustment [153][154]. 2. Fundamental Changes - The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries decreased in November. China's pulp import volume increased in November. The global pulp inventory days increased, and the domestic and European port inventories decreased. The downstream market is stable [155][161][168].