建信期货农产品周度报告-20260109

Industry - The industry under research is agriculture products [1] Core Viewpoints - For soymeal, the domestic market is expected to face a potential supply shortage in Q1 2026, with the 03 contract stronger than the 05 contract. The price of soymeal will be affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean production, and domestic soybean imports and crushing [9][10] - For eggs, the spot price is expected to enter a seasonal peak, with the 02 and 03 contracts likely to strengthen in basis. The far - month contracts may have potential due to the expected inflection point in inventory, and attention should be paid to the replenishment situation [48] - For sugar, the raw sugar index is expected to maintain a sideways shock, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have a shock market. Attention should be paid to the 60 - day moving average resistance level [71][72] - For cotton, the short - term cotton price faces callback pressure at the integer - level resistance, and the medium - to - long - term trend of going long at low levels remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the actual reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the 2026/27 season and the pre - Spring Festival restocking by downstream enterprises [92] Breakdown by Directory Soymeal Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices of coastal soymeal rose as of January 9, with Dalian at 3240 yuan/ton (+80), Rizhao at 3160 yuan/ton (+80), Zhangjiagang at 3150 yuan/ton (+50), and Dongguan at 3140 yuan/ton (+60) [8] - The US soybean futures rebounded after a previous decline, mainly due to the digestion of the bearish factors of Brazilian bumper harvest and weak US soybean exports. The domestic soymeal followed the external market and was relatively strong, especially the 03 contract. The 05 contract's rebound space is limited [9][10] Core Points - Soybean Planting: The USDA December report showed that the new - season US soybean planting area decreased, but the yield per unit increased. The South American soybean production is expected to be high, with Brazil's production estimated to reach 1.75 billion tons and Argentina's at 48.5 million tons. The planting progress in Brazil is almost complete, and the growth situation is good. Argentina's planting rate is 88.3% as of January 7 [11][12][13] - US Soybean Exports: As of January 1, the weekly shipment volume, net sales volume, and cumulative sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased year - on - year. The US and China reached a trade agreement, but the commercial procurement is restricted by the 13% tariff [19] - Domestic Soybean Import and Crushing: As of January 8, the crushing profit of imported soybeans varied. The soybean crushing volume and operating rate decreased, and the import volume and inventory situation showed seasonal changes [27][28][30] - Soymeal Transaction and Inventory: As of January 2, the domestic main oil mills' soymeal inventory increased. The trading volume was affected by factors such as Sino - US trade frictions and the suspension of imported soybean auctions [34][37] - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of January 9, the 05 contract basis of soymeal was about 438.86, and the 3 - 5 spread was 309. The basis is expected to be strong in shock, and the 3 - 5 spread may continue to be strong [40] - Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of January 8, the number of domestic soymeal registered warehouse receipts was 25,410, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [45] Eggs Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot price of eggs rose this week, and the futures near - month contracts were slightly stronger, while the far - month contracts declined. The 02 and 03 contracts are expected to strengthen in basis, and attention should be paid to the far - month contracts' potential due to inventory changes [48] Data Summary - Inventory and Replenishment: As of December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was at a high level in the same period of history, with a slight decline. The replenishment momentum was weak, and the proportion of different - age - group laying hens changed [49][50][53] - Cost, Income, and Breeding Profit: As of January 8, the egg spot price rose, the feed cost was at a medium level, the egg - chick price was at a medium - low level, and the breeding profit was at a very low level [58] - Culled Hens: The culling volume was relatively high but slightly declined, the culling age was stable, and the culled - hen price was at a low level in the same period of history [59] - Demand, Inventory, and Pig Price: As of January 8, the egg sales volume was at a low level in the same period of history, the inventory was relatively high, and the pig price was at a low level in the same period of history [65] Sugar - The raw sugar index slightly rebounded, and the Zhengzhou sugar index strengthened in shock. The spot prices in Guangxi and Yunnan increased, and the basis narrowed. The 5 - 9 spread strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts increased. The production in Brazil and India will affect the sugar price [71][72][74] Cotton Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The external cotton market slightly recovered, and the Zhengzhou cotton reached the resistance level and then fell back. The domestic spot market trading was slightly weak, and the pure - cotton yarn market maintained rigid demand. The overseas market was affected by tariffs, and the domestic market should pay attention to the planting area change and the pre - Spring Festival restocking [90][91][92] Core Points - Cotton - Producing Countries: The USDA December report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with the opening inventory increasing, production and trade volume decreasing, and the closing inventory increasing [93] - US Cotton Exports: As of November 30, the net signing and shipment volume of US cotton showed different trends, and the cumulative signing and shipment volume also changed compared with the previous year [100] - Textile Enterprises: As of December 26, the cotton and yarn inventories of textile enterprises changed, and the load indexes of yarn and grey - cloth production decreased [102] - Basis and Inter - month Spread: As of January 8, the spot basis of cotton increased, and the 1 - 5 spread also increased [115] - CFTC Position and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts: As of December 30, the non - commercial net position of US cotton increased, and as of January 8, the domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased [119]