Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The prices of rebar (RB2605), hot-rolled coil (HC2605), coke (J2605), and coking coal (JM2605) are expected to be volatile and strong. The iron ore price (I2605) is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival [6][7][8][9][10][11]. Summary by Directory Black Variety Strategy Recommendations - Single-Side Strategy - RB2605 (price: 3144): Volatile and strong, influenced by re - inflation cycle, price depression, production increase, demand shrinkage, inventory change, and cost support [6]. - HC2605 (price: 3294): Volatile and strong, with similar influencing factors as RB2605 [6]. - J2605 (price: 1748): Volatile and strong, affected by coal production quota reduction in Indonesia, coal export tariff, price depression, inventory change, and supply - demand transition [6]. - JM2605 (price: 1195.5): Volatile and strong, with influencing factors similar to J2605 [6]. - I2605 (price: 814.5): Maintain resilience, due to shipping and arrival trends, demand improvement, inventory situation, and pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand [6][11]. - Arbitrage Strategy - For cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, no clear trading directions were provided for RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM [6]. Steel Fundamental Analysis - Price: On January 9, the spot prices of major rebar and hot - rolled coil markets mainly increased slightly [12]. - Blast Furnace and Crude Steel: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased for three consecutive weeks, while the average daily crude steel output of key large and medium - sized enterprises decreased in late December [12]. - Hot Metal and Electric Furnace: The national daily average hot metal output increased for three consecutive weeks, and the capacity utilization rate of 87 independent electric arc furnace steel mills increased significantly for two consecutive weeks [15]. - Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil of major steel mills increased, the rebar inventory in major steel mills increased, and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [15]. - Social Inventory: The social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in some cities increased [19]. - Downstream Demand: The national real estate development investment decreased year - on - year from January to November last year, while the output of automobiles, metal - cutting machine tools, and some home appliances increased [19]. - Apparent Consumption and Disk Profit: The apparent consumption of rebar decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed an obvious widening of the loss [24]. - Spot Tons of Steel Gross Profit: The spot tons of steel gross profit of long - process steel mills' rebar showed an expansion of the loss, and that of short - process steel mills decreased [28]. Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: Expected to be volatile and strong, and a strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [32]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to narrow with fluctuations, ranging from 90 to 190 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate within the range of - 40 to 30 yuan/ton [33][35]. Coke and Coking Coal Fundamental Analysis - Price: The spot prices of major coke markets decreased, and the prices of major coking coal markets decreased steadily for three consecutive weeks [36]. - Output and Capacity Utilization: The daily average coke output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises increased [36]. - Inventory and Profit: The coke inventory at ports and steel enterprises increased, while that at independent coking plants decreased. The average profit of independent coking enterprises showed a continuous three - week loss [39]. - Mine Output,开工率, and Inventory: The daily average refined coal output and the opening rate of 523 sample mines increased, and the refined coal and raw coal inventories increased [40]. - Import and Inventory of Coking Coal: The import of coking coal from January to November last year decreased. The port inventory of coking coal decreased slightly, the inventory of independent coking plants increased, and that of steel enterprises decreased [44]. - Output of Raw Coal and Coke: The output of raw coal and coke from January to November last year increased year - on - year [44]. Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and coking coal are expected to continue to be volatile and strong, with a short - term pull - back for rhythm adjustment. A strategy of buying on dips for hedging or investment can be tried [48][49]. Iron Ore Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port increased. The spreads between different ore grades changed [50]. - Inventory and Port Clearance: The inventory of 45 ports increased, the daily average port clearance decreased, the inventory available days of steel mills decreased, and the sintered powder ore inventory of sample steel mills decreased. Steel mills are expected to start pre - festival replenishment in mid - to late January [54]. - Shipping and Arrival: The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil decreased, and the arrival volume increased. The future shipping volume is expected to weaken, and the arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [58][59]. - Domestic Output and Capacity Utilization: The domestic iron ore output from January to November 2025 decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 186 domestic mines increased. The national mine output is expected to continue to increase slightly [61]. - Port Transaction Volume and Hot Metal Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume decreased, and the average tax - free hot metal cost of 64 sample steel mills decreased for three consecutive weeks [63]. - Hot Metal Output, Blast Furnace Operation, and Capacity Utilization: The daily average hot metal output, blast furnace capacity utilization rate, and blast furnace opening rate of 247 sample steel mills increased. The profitability of steel enterprises decreased [63]. - Output and Inventory of Five Steel Products: The actual weekly output of five steel products increased, the consumption decreased, the steel mill inventory and social inventory increased, and the total inventory increased [68]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices decreased, and the Baltic Dry Index and the Capesize freight index decreased [71]. Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to maintain resilience before the Spring Festival. The supply side has pressure, but the demand side shows signs of improvement, and the pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand will boost the price [73]. - Basis: The basis of iron ore in Qingdao Port is expected to fluctuate within the range of 40 - 100 yuan/ton [74].
建信期货黑色金属周报-20260109
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2026-01-09 12:10