宏观贵金属周报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global political - economic system is accelerating its restructuring, and the abundant monetary liquidity environment supports the continued strong performance of precious metal prices in 2026, but the optimization of Trump 2.0 policies and the decline in the intensity of Sino - US game also restrain the upward momentum [23][26]. - The US dollar index is expected to continue to be weak in 2026, while the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to continue to be strong [16][17]. - The US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen in 2026, with short - term interest rates continuing to decline and medium - and long - term Treasury yields showing more range - bound characteristics [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1%, returning to the expansion range for the first time since April 2025. The service industry, construction, and comprehensive PMIs also showed an upward trend, indicating an overall economic recovery [4]. - In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9%, the lowest since November 2024, but the non - manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4%, the highest since November 2024, showing a good situation of improved economic momentum, falling prices, and stable employment [6]. - In October 2025, US import volume shrank, and the trade deficit was the smallest since March 2021. It is expected that the import shrinkage will continue until the end of 2025, and net exports may offset the negative impact of the federal government shutdown [7]. - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating. The PPI shrank by 2.1% year - on - year, with the degree of shrinkage narrowing [9][10]. 3.1.2 Policy - In 2026, China's "two new" policies (large - scale equipment update and consumer goods trade - in) will be optimized in structure, with appropriate increase in subsidy thresholds and contraction in total scale. The first batch of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for consumer goods trade - in has been advanced [12]. - In January 2026, relevant departments issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'", and the Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on the export of dual - use items to Japan and an anti - dumping investigation into imported dichlorodihydrosilicon from Japan [13]. 3.1.3 Geopolitics - In early January 2026, the US launched a large - scale air strike on Venezuela, and there have also been events such as the US seizing oil tankers and discussing the acquisition of Greenland. In Iran, there have been large - scale protests and a nationwide Internet shutdown [14][15]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to continue to be weak in 2026, with support levels at 95 and 90. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to be strong, with resistance levels at 6.97 and 6.85 [16][17]. - The US Treasury yield curve is expected to continue to steepen in 2026, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield fluctuating in the range of 3.8% - 4.5% [19]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of January 8, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 24.5% compared with the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 20.8% [20]. - As of December 30, 2025, the net long ratios of gold and silver funds decreased slightly, and institutional investors were more optimistic about gold [22]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, the precious metals market is in a bull market. In the medium - term, the price of precious metals is strong. In the short - term, after a sharp rise in late November 2025, there was a significant correction at the end of December, and the market has stabilized since then [23][24]. - In 2026, the price of London gold is expected to rise to the range of $4800 - 5000 per ounce, silver to $90 - 100 per ounce, platinum to $3000 - 3150 per ounce, and palladium to $2180 - 2300 per ounce [26]. - It is recommended that investors maintain a long - biased trading strategy, and conservative investors can pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [27]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio in London and Shanghai has shown a downward trend since late April 2025. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from positive to negative, the positive correlation between gold and the real US Treasury yield has strengthened, the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has further strengthened, and the positive correlation between gold and silver has weakened [28].