黑色产业链日报-20260109

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - For steel products, profit margins have improved, reducing the incentive for production cuts. Iron ore production has stopped declining and stabilized, with a slight increase in output. However, downstream demand is expected to weaken gradually after the festival. Currently, inventory is being depleted, but there may be inventory accumulation due to supply - demand mismatches in the future, leading to a price return to a volatile pattern [3] - For iron ore, the current fundamentals are neutral. The shipping end is slightly positive, but there is significant pressure on floating ore at sea and subsequent port - arrival pressure. On the demand side, steel mill profits have rebounded, and inventory has been continuously depleted, providing room for increased production. It is expected that iron production has bottomed out and will rebound. Inventory is high, but there is a structural shortage. Attention should be paid to policy risks. Steel mills have pre - festival inventory replenishment demand for support. Overall, the current spot market is not short of iron ore, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price increases. In the short - term, prices are overbought technically, and attention should be paid to policy risks related to inventory release [22] - For coking coal and coke, the market has been affected by the "anti - monopoly" news, and the previous hype of the "anti - involution" concept has cooled down. The coking coal and coke futures have shown signs of correction. The rebound of coking coal and coke is mainly driven by the resonance of macro and industrial logic. Macro - level events have intensified concerns about the supply stability of key mineral resources, affecting multiple sectors. On the industrial side, the stabilization and rebound of downstream iron production, the strengthening of winter storage replenishment expectations, and low inventory in the spot - futures trading link support the demand side. The impact of macro sentiment on coking coal and coke prices is significantly stronger than that of industrial logic. If the macro sentiment cools down, it will be difficult to support a significant upward movement of the futures market relying solely on the improvement of demand in the black industry chain. The subsequent trend may turn into a small - range volatile pattern [32] - For ferroalloys, with the increase in production and continuous inventory accumulation, the upward momentum of price fluctuations may be suppressed, leading to a price correction. However, the downward space is limited due to cost support [48] - For soda ash, the sentiment in the commodity market has heated up, driving up low - valued varieties. Fundamentally, as the expectation of new production capacity comes into play, the expectation of oversupply in soda ash is intensifying. Recently, the cold repair of glass production lines has accelerated, further weakening the expected rigid demand for soda ash. The medium - to - long - term high - level supply expectation of soda ash remains unchanged. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, and the daily melting volume is relatively stable. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In November, soda ash exports were close to 190,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continued to alleviate domestic pressure to some extent. High inventory in the upstream and mid - stream restricts soda ash prices [62] - For glass, there are still some glass production line cold repairs to be implemented before the Spring Festival, which may affect long - term pricing and market expectations. Policy disturbances to supply cannot be ruled out. In reality, regardless of supply expectations, the high inventory in the mid - stream of glass needs to be digested, and with the terminal market entering the off - season, there is still pressure on the spot market [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Data: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,089 yuan/ton, down from 3,127 yuan/ton on January 8; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract was 3,255 yuan/ton, down from 3,300 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices also showed slight declines in some regions [4][9] - Spread Data: The rebar 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 55 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 41 yuan/ton on January 8; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 39 yuan/ton on January 9, compared to - 17 yuan/ton on January 8. The rebar - hot - rolled coil spread also showed some changes [4][16] Iron Ore - Price Data: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the 01 contract was 852 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 05 contract was 814.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan from the previous day. The basis also showed corresponding changes [23] - Fundamental Data: The average daily iron production on January 9 was 229.5 tons, up 2.07 tons from the previous week; the 45 - port inventory was 16,275,260 tons, up 304,370 tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - Futures Spread Data: On January 9, 2026, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 83 yuan/ton, down 27.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 328 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [35] - Spot Price Data: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal remained at 1,500 yuan/ton; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 raw coal at the 288 port was 1,034 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan from the previous week [36] Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: On January 9, 2026, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 38 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous day; the silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [49] - Silicon Manganese: The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 146 yuan/ton on January 9, down 62 yuan from the previous day; the silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [50] Soda Ash - Price Data: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,228 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,295 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day [63] - Inventory and Market Data: The overall inventory of the upstream and mid - stream remains high, restricting price increases. In November, exports were close to 190,000 tons, alleviating domestic pressure to some extent [62] Glass - Price Data: On January 9, 2026, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,144 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the 09 contract was 1,238 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan from the previous day [85] - Sales and Production Data: The sales - to - production ratio in different regions showed certain fluctuations. For example, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe on January 4 was 137, compared to 130 on January 3 [86]