有色金属周报-20260109

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 9, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Short-term high prices suppress demand, but low LME inventories and mid-term demand are still valid. Copper prices are expected to oscillate to digest short-term selling pressure [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Mid-term supply and demand are promising. Short-term inventory accumulation concerns may cause prices to oscillate at high levels, but the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. - Aluminum: The aluminum market is still dominated by macro and capital sentiment. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand and are prone to rise rather than fall [43]. - Nickel: Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. - Zinc: The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation to digest the previous increase and wait for new directional guidance [105]. Summary by Directory Copper 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai copper first rose and then fell. The main contract reached a high of 105,500 and then fell below 100,000. LME copper also showed a similar trend. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - Supply is still at a high level, but demand is weak in the short term due to high prices. However, the market is generally optimistic about the future demand growth space of copper. LME low inventories support copper prices, and short-term spot pressure is limited. It is expected that copper prices will oscillate [7]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: Copper concentrate import TC continues to decline, and the supply of cold materials is abundant. SMM expects that the output of smelters in January will decrease by 14,500 tons month-on-month. The import window for refined copper is closed [7][10][13]. - Demand Side: The operating rates of downstream waste copper rods, refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire enterprises have all declined. However, after the short-term decline in copper prices, downstream orders have been released. The current decline in operating rates is mainly due to high prices rather than a substantial lack of demand [7]. - Spot Side: Domestic inventories have increased, and it is expected that the market will maintain a pattern of "loose supply and cautious consumption" next week, and inventories will continue to accumulate [16]. Lithium Carbonate 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate rose, driving the spot price up. The rise in the first half of the week was due to supply concerns and capital enthusiasm, and the second half of the week was in high-level oscillation due to capital selling. The destocking process was interrupted this week [25]. - Supply growth is limited, and demand has not significantly stalled. Although the short-term inventory accumulation concerns are emerging, the mid-term supply and demand situation is good, and the mid-term upward trend remains unchanged [26]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: This week, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 115 tons. It is expected that the output in January will decrease compared with December last year, and the growth of lithium mica output is restricted. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from raw materials has increased [26][30]. - Demand Side: The output of cathode materials has declined, but the orders in the energy storage field have increased month-on-month. The final business conditions of ternary materials are expected to be favorable to manufacturers, and some iron lithium plants are expected to resume production [26]. - Spot Side: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The destocking process has been interrupted, and short-term concerns are emerging [34][35]. Aluminum 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - At the beginning of 2026, aluminum prices rose sharply, and the import window was closed. Alumina and aluminum alloy also showed corresponding trends. Overseas speculative funds' enthusiasm for going long increased [40]. - The supply of domestic bauxite is gradually easing, and the price of alumina is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The short-term supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and high prices have suppressed downstream demand. Aluminum prices still have short-term catch-up demand [42][43]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Bauxite Market: The price of domestic bauxite has slightly decreased, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. The price of imported bauxite has also decreased, and the market is trading lightly [44]. - Alumina: It has rebounded with the general trend, and the import window remains open. The domestic alumina plant maintains a high level of operation [47][48]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The import window for aluminum ingots remains closed, and the net import in November has declined [56][63]. - Downstream Consumption: High aluminum prices have suppressed downstream consumption, and the operating rates of processing enterprises are differentiated. It is expected that the operating rates will maintain a weak oscillation in the short term [66]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum ingots has increased significantly [71]. Nickel 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the first week of 2026, Shanghai nickel first rose and then fell, with a large fluctuation range. The spot market has obvious speculative inventory phenomena. The import window remains closed [75]. - Driven by global resource competition and Indonesian policy disturbances, the operating center of nickel prices is expected to rise, but short-term attention should be paid to policy changes [79]. 2. Fundamental Changes - Nickel Ore Market: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable this week. In November 2025, the national nickel ore import volume decreased month-on-month [80]. - Nickel Iron Market: In December 2025, the national nickel pig iron output decreased month-on-month. The supply side continued to hold prices firm, and the demand side had some activity but still had differences between upstream and downstream [87]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In December, the monthly output of electrolytic nickel in China increased month-on-month [92]. - Nickel Sulfate Market: The price of nickel salt continued to decline this week. In December, the monthly output of nickel sulfate decreased month-on-month [98]. - Stainless Steel Market: The inventory of the stainless steel market has decreased, and the market sentiment is strong. The inquiry and transaction are relatively active [103]. Zinc 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Geopolitical risks have driven up the prices of precious metals and non-ferrous metals, but the zinc price has risen weakly this round. It has fallen back from a high level in the second half of the week. The zinc price has entered a high-level oscillation [104][105]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: The supply of domestic zinc ore is tight, and the processing fee continues to decline. The import window for zinc ore is open, but the transaction is light. It is expected that the zinc ingot output in January will increase month-on-month [112][113]. - Demand Side: The operating rates of galvanizing, die-casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide are different. Galvanizing has increased slightly, while die-casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide have decreased. The overall demand is weak in the off-season [114][115]. - Spot Market: Domestic inventories have increased, and LME zinc inventories have also increased [116].