中盛期货有色金属周度报告-20260109

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For copper, short - term price may enter a high - level oscillation stage, and long - term demand has positive support with a long - term bullish trend in bands [45][46][47] - For polysilicon, short - term sentiment is pessimistic and price may continue to seek the bottom, and long - term attention should be paid to production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - For alumina and electrolytic aluminum, short - term alumina will oscillate weakly at a low level, and Shanghai aluminum will oscillate at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum will oscillate strongly under a loose monetary environment, and alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: Futures (CU2603) rose from 92780 to 101580 (9.48% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 99290 to 100590 (1.31% weekly increase) [3] - Aluminum: Futures (AL2603) rose from 22950 to 24385 (6.25% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 22450 to 24020 (6.99% weekly increase) [3] - Zinc: Futures (ZN2603) rose from 23310 to 24015 (3.02% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 23340 to 24040 (3.00% weekly increase) [3] - Lead: Futures (PB2603) rose from 17360 to 17395 (0.20% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 17125 to 17175 (0.29% weekly increase) [3] - Nickel: Futures (NI2602) rose from 132850 to 139090 (4.70% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 137550 to 141900 (3.16% weekly increase) [3] - Alumina: Futures (AO2605) rose from 2778 to 2843 (2.34% weekly increase), and spot price fell from 2720 to 2710 (- 0.37% weekly decrease) [3] - Industrial silicon: Futures (SI2605) fell from 8860 to 8715 (- 1.64% weekly decrease), and spot average price fell from 9650 to 9550 (- 1.04% weekly decrease) [3] - Lithium carbonate: Futures (LC2605) rose from 121580 to 143420 (17.96% weekly increase), and spot average price rose from 121500 to 140000 (15.23% weekly increase) [3] - Polysilicon: Futures (PS2605) rose from 53150 to 57190 (7.60% weekly increase), and spot price rose from 53000 to 55000 (3.77% weekly increase) [3] 3.2 Copper Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - LME copper inventory decreased from 14.95 million tons to 14.11 million tons (- 5.62% weekly decrease) [12] - COMEX copper inventory increased from 49.07 million tons to 51.5 million tons (4.95% weekly increase) [12] - SHEF copper inventory increased from 14.53 million tons to 18.05 million tons (24.23% weekly increase) [12] 3.3 Copper Concentrate Processing Fees - As of January 8, 2026, copper concentrate spot TC was - 44.76 dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low; RC was - 4.48 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation at the mine end [19] 3.4 Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 9, 2026, the latest quote was 1880 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 332 dollars/ton [22] 3.5 Aluminum Raw Material Supply - As of January 9, bauxite port inventory was 25.096 billion tons, an increase of 88.6 million tons from last week; as of December end, alumina plant bauxite inventory was 24.66 billion tons, a month - on - month increase of 50 million tons (2.07%) and a year - on - year increase of 275 million tons (12.55%), at a historical high [25] 3.6 Alumina Supply - As of January 9, alumina enterprise weekly operating rate was 85.74%, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 percentage points; weekly output was 1.851 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 23 million tons; total inventory was 5.318 billion tons, an increase of 76 million tons from last week [28] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - As of November end, China's primary aluminum output was 3.647 billion tons, imports were 1.47 million tons, and inventory was 5.95 million tons; as of December end, the electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.3%, remaining at a high level [31] 3.8 Aluminum Inventory Trends of Three Major Exchanges - As of January 9, LME aluminum inventory was 4.998 billion tons, a decrease of 9500 tons from last Friday; SHFE aluminum inventory was 1.438 billion tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons from last Friday; COMEX aluminum inventory was 6338 tons, an increase of 75 tons from last week, and the overall global inventory continued to accumulate [34][35] 3.9 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In November 2025, automobile production and sales reached 3.532 million and 3.429 million respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. From January to November, cumulative production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% [39] - In November 2025, new - energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 20% and 20.6%. The proportion of new - car sales in total automobile sales reached 53.2%, exceeding 50% for the first time in a single month. From January to November, cumulative sales were 14.78 million, with a year - on - year increase of 31.2%, and the proportion increased to 47.5% [39] - From January to November, real - estate construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; new construction area was 534.57 million square meters, a decrease of 20.5%; completion area was 394.54 million square meters, a decrease of 18.0% [41] - As of November end, the total installed power - generation capacity in China was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, solar - power installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; wind - power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the average utilization hours of power - generation equipment were 2858 hours, a decrease of 289 hours compared with the same period last year [43] 3.10 Strategy Recommendations - Copper: Short - term high - level oscillation, focus on overseas mine strikes and downstream order recovery; long - term demand has positive support [45][46][47] - Polysilicon: Short - term price may continue to seek the bottom, long - term focus on production adjustment, inventory digestion and regulatory policy impact [49][50] - Alumina and Electrolytic Aluminum: Short - term alumina oscillates weakly at a low level, Shanghai aluminum oscillates at a high level; long - term Shanghai aluminum oscillates strongly under a loose monetary environment, alumina oscillates widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [51][52]