三大油脂周度报告-20260109

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, palm oil investors should focus on the MPOB report next Monday and be aware of volatility risks; rapeseed oil investors should pay attention to the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China on rapeseed products; domestic soybean oil inventory remains relatively high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking situation. In the long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - seeking, rapeseed oil prices depend on China - Canada trade relations, and the cost center of soybean oil may rise [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - From December 31, 2025, to January 9, 2026, palm oil futures rose 1.14%, rapeseed oil futures fell 0.50%, and soybean oil futures rose 1.68%. Palm oil spot prices rose 0.42%, rapeseed oil spot prices fell 0.86%, and soybean oil spot prices rose 0.63% [4]. - As of January 8, 2026, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 364 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous week), 906 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan/ton), and - 12 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan/ton) respectively. As of January 9, 2026, the YP spread was - 688 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.2 Inventory - As of January 2, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.3 million tons (down 0.1 million tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory was 73.38 million tons (down 0.03 million tons), the national soybean oil inventory was 108.10 million tons (down 0.8 million tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 181.78 million tons (down 0.93 million tons) [10]. 3.3 Supply - side - Palm oil: As of January 6, 2026, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8678 yuan/ton (down 57 yuan/ton from the previous week), and the gross profit against the market was - 124 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton). From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month [13]. - Soybean oil: As of January 2, 2026, the national port soybean inventory was 823.60 million tons (down 1.5 million tons from the previous week), the major oil - mill soybean inventory was 710.25 million tons (up 55.81 million tons), and the oil - mill operating rate was 50% (up 5%). As of January 9, 2026, the soybean crushing profit was - 470.70 yuan/ton (up 68 yuan/ton) [16]. - Rapeseed oil: As of January 2, 2026, the oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons (unchanged from the previous week). As of January 9, 2026, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2157.0 yuan/ton (down 241.0 yuan/ton) [22]. 3.4 Demand - side - On January 8, 2026, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 0 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 15,200 tons, and the POGO spread was 405.24 US dollars/ton (down 25.5 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.05 million tons [28]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week to discuss trade, energy, agriculture, and international security, which may affect rapeseed products [29]. - International factors: Brazilian soybean harvest is going smoothly, and the new crop is growing well, leading to a loose global soybean supply. The market is waiting for the USDA's January 12 global supply - demand data. From January 1 - 5, 2026, South Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 34.48% month - on - month, and exports increased by 31%. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high [29]. - Import and crushing: The oil - mill operating rate increased by 1% from the previous week, and soybean inventory decreased. The oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous week [29]. - Inventory: As of January 2, 2026, coastal rapeseed oil inventory decreased to 0.5 million tons, palm oil commercial inventory increased to 70 million tons, and national soybean oil inventory decreased to 112.35 million tons [29]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of the three major oils rose. Palm oil rose 2.52%, rapeseed oil rose 4.88%, and soybean oil rose 0.96% [29]. 3.6 Strategy Recommendation - Palm oil: This week, the three major oils showed divergent trends. Palm oil fundamentals have improved, with the producing area entering the production - reduction cycle and exports increasing. The December palm oil inventory in Malaysia may reach a seven - year high, and attention should be paid to the expected difference in the MPOB report [30]. - Soybean oil: Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase, resulting in a loose global soybean supply. The market is focusing on the USDA's January supply - demand report. In China, soybean oil inventory remains high, and attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking [30]. - Rapeseed oil: The supply - demand pattern of Canadian rapeseed is relatively loose, restraining its market price. In China, oil mills are still shut down, and rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing. Australian rapeseed will increase future supply pressure. The Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China may improve China - Canada relations, and its impact on rapeseed products should be noted [30].