瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260108

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and a demand off - season. The aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation due to positive macro expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the market is in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 635 yuan/ton to 23,725 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 30,668 lots. The LME aluminum price decreased by 54.5 dollars/ton to 3,074.5 dollars/ton, and the inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 501,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.72 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 61,525 lots [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 22,585 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 390 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy in the SHFE increased by 539 tons to 69,737 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals A00 aluminum increased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals AOO aluminum decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton. The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals remained at 0 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy increased by 405 yuan/ton to 1,115 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 865 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 75 yuan/ton to - 278 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month increased by 27.30 million tons to 813.80 million tons, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 85.00%, and the demand decreased by 24.27 million tons to 705.96 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 350 yuan/ton to 18,550 yuan/ton, and in Shandong metal scrap increased by 400 yuan/ton to 17,850 yuan/ton [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 4,396.16 tons to 162,756.17 tons, and the export volume increased by 39.07 tons to 71.53 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 1.00 million tons to 17.00 million tons, and the import volume increased by 4.31 million tons to 23.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12.00 million tons to 4,536.20 million tons, the production of primary aluminum imports decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 146,109.72 tons, and the exports increased by 28,474.13 tons to 53,047.69 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.00 million tons to 57.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70.00 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index decreased by 0.52 to 91.90, and the automobile production increased by 24.00 million vehicles to 351.90 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58 percentage points to 19.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 1.61 percentage points to 17.06% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 0.0268 percentage points to 27.94%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0324 to 1.54 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month, reaching the highest in 2025 [2] - In December 2025, China's passenger car market retail sales were 2.296 million vehicles, down 13% year - on - year and up 3% month - on - month. The new energy vehicle market retail sales were 1.387 million vehicles, up 7% year - on - year and up 5% month - on - month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4% [2] - In December 2025 in the US, the private - sector employment in ADP data increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market - expected 7.6 million [2] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, and the core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%. The market expects the European Central Bank to remain unchanged in the long - term [2] - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]