沪铜产业日报-20260108

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a spot premium, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index decreased slightly, and the expectation of tight ore supply continued, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the continuous tight raw material supply and the approaching holiday, copper smelting capacity may gradually shrink, and the growth rate of domestic refined copper supply will gradually slow down. On the demand side, after the copper price rebounded from its high, the repair strength was strong and remained at a high level, which had a certain inhibitory effect on downstream purchases. Downstream buyers mainly replenished their stocks according to demand, and the trading sentiment in the spot market became increasingly cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and cautious demand, and social inventories have accumulated. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.42, a month - on - month increase of 0.0986, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility decreased slightly. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines were above the 0 - axis, and the green bars expanded. The suggestion is to conduct light - position trading in a volatile market, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 101,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,190 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 12,805 dollars/ton, a decrease of 94.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 204,090 lots, a decrease of 11,779 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 60,574 lots, a decrease of 16,936 lots. LME copper inventories were 143,225 tons, a decrease of 2,850 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of cathode copper were 145,342 tons, an increase of 33,639 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 108,685 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 102,085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,325 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 102,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,060 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 42.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 865 yuan/ton, an increase of 865 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 14.98 dollars/ton, an increase of 12 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 252.62 million tons, an increase of 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 44.98 dollars/kiloton, a decrease of 0.08 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 93,890 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 94,590 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 150 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 2,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 1,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The output of refined copper was 123.60 million tons, an increase of 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Social inventories of copper were 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 70,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 85,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Applications - The output of copper products was 222.60 million tons, an increase of 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 560.39 billion yuan, an increase of 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 7,859.09 billion yuan, an increase of 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,392 million pieces, an increase of 215 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 25.96%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 21.40%, an increase of 1.00 percentage point. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 33.04%, a decrease of 0.0060 percentage points; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.42, an increase of 0.0986 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level in 2025, indicating continuous active demand for physical - economy logistics services. In December 2025, the retail sales of China's passenger car market were 2.296 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market were 1.387 million units, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4%. The US "small non - farm" in December last year showed a moderate recovery. ADP data showed that the number of private - sector employees in US enterprises increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In addition, the number of job openings in the US JOLTS in November 2025 dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market expectation of 7.6 million, reaching the lowest level since September 2024. The director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, Zhang Yuzhuo, visited Sichuan to conduct research in the R & D and production front - lines of relevant central enterprises, emphasizing the need to plan and implement a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance; coordinate the consolidation and improvement of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of new kinetic energy, vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and future industries, and open up a "second growth curve". The preliminary value of the euro - zone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched service - sector inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The market expects that unless there is a major change in the economic outlook, the European Central Bank will remain on hold for a long time. According to data released by the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, in December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and it has been running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]