瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260108

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate market may be in a stage of steady growth in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 145,000 yuan/ton, up 2,700 yuan; the net position of the top 20 was -154,440 hands, down 2,377 hands; the position volume of the main contract was 514,467 hands, up 7,947 hands; the spread between near and far contracts was -7,040 yuan/ton, down 5,640 yuan; the warehouse receipts of GZFE were 25,770 hands/ton, up 590 hands [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 138,500 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 135,000 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract was -6,500 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) was 1,600 US dollars/ton, up 90 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite was 16,075 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 6,000 yuan/ton, up 462 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate was 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume was 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume was 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises was 49%, up 2 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries was 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 157,500 yuan/ton, down 2,500 yuan; the price of lithium manganate was 39,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobaltate was 386,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China was 175,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China was 158,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China was 171,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials was 50%, down 1 percentage point; the price of lithium iron phosphate was 47,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes was 60%, down 3 percentage points; the monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,880,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 1,823,000 vehicles, up 108,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 47.48%, up 0.74 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 14,780,000 vehicles, up 3,518,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles was 300,000 vehicles, up 44,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 2.315 million vehicles, up 1.174 million vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying was 61.42%, down 1.96 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying was 60.08%, down 0.21 percentage points [2] Option Situation - The total call position was 142,628 contracts, up 8,294 contracts; the total put position was 248,471 contracts, up 1,174 contracts; the put - call ratio of the total position was 174.21%, down 9.882 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV was up 0.0093 percentage points [2] Industry News - On January 7, multiple departments jointly held a symposium on the power and energy storage battery industry to study and deploy work related to standardizing industrial competition order. More than 10 enterprises participated, including the top 10 domestic power battery enterprises, several leading energy storage battery enterprises and integrators [2] - New宙邦 stated that the 36,000 - ton production capacity target of lithium hexafluorophosphate of Jiangxi Shilei Fluorine Materials Co., Ltd., in which it invested, has completed technological transformation and entered the trial - production ramp - up period. 2026 will be a key year for the new production capacity to gradually materialize and contribute output [2] - Zhongkuang Resources stated that its 30,000 - ton high - purity lithium salt technological transformation project has completed construction and obtained trial - production filing, and started trial - production operation on January 2, 2026 [2] - Dazhong Mining announced that its 6th Board of Directors' 21st meeting reviewed and approved the proposal for its wholly - owned subsidiary to implement the 20 - million - ton/year lithium ore mining, beneficiation and tailing integration project in the Tongtianmiao ore section of the Jijiaoshan mining area. The project's construction investment is expected to be 3.688 billion yuan [2] - According to the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the retail sales of the passenger car market in China were 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. Among them, the retail sales of the new energy vehicle market were 1.387 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7% and a month - on - month increase of 5%, and the new energy retail penetration rate was 60.4% [2]