Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2026-01-08 [1] Group 2: Market Data Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber is 12,195 yuan/ton [2] - The open interest of the main contract for synthetic rubber decreased by 3,753 to 30,228 [2] - The 2-3 spread of synthetic rubber is -35 yuan/ton [2] - The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber decreased by 30 to 4,530 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, 11,800 yuan/ton, and 11,850 yuan/ton respectively, with some prices increasing by 50 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber is -305 yuan/ton [2] - Brent crude oil price is 59.96 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 [2] - Naphtha CFR Japan price is 745 US dollars/ton [2] - Northeast Asian ethylene price is 1,005 US dollars/ton, up 20 [2] - Butadiene CFR China price is 532.75 US dollars/ton, down 1.5 [2] - WTI crude oil price is 55.99 US dollars/barrel, down 1.14 [2] - The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong increased by 150 to 9,300 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change [2] - The weekly butadiene capacity utilization rate increased by 0.56 percentage points to 71.17% [2] - The port inventory of butadiene decreased by 1,400 to 44,700 tons [2] - The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units decreased by 0.37 percentage points to 54.57% [2] - The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 0.75 to 13.01 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.5 percentage points to 76.76% [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is 334 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 0.05 to 3.45 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber decreased by 2,550 to 26,300 tons [2] - The weekly trader's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber increased by 1,490 to 7,180 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires decreased by 2.7 percentage points to 69.35% [2] - The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 59.55% [2] - The monthly production of all - steel tires increased by 59 to 1,301 million pieces [2] - The monthly production of semi - steel tires increased by 663 to 5,831 million pieces [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days, with a 0.19 - day increase [2] - The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.05 days [2] Group 3: Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2] - In December, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 7, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 million tons (1.08%) [2] - Recently, there have been few shutdowns of domestic cis - butadiene units, supply has remained high. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but there is some inventory waiting to be picked up after being sold, and the overall inventory level has changed little [2] Group 4: Core Viewpoints - This period, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber has remained at a high level. The cis - butadiene market has been boosted by the sharp rise in raw material prices, and the sales of production enterprises have improved, but the overall inventory level has changed little due to the existence of unsold inventory [2] - The continuous strength and rapid price increase of raw materials have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. However, due to the downstream's resistance to high prices, they may maintain rigid demand purchases. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term [2] - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has decreased this week. Some enterprises had maintenance arrangements around the "New Year's Day" holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production during the cycle, dragging down the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly next week [2] - The short - term price of the br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,000 and 12,550 [2]
合成橡胶产业日报-20260108
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-08 09:01