瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260108

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short-term supply pressure decreases, providing support for prices, but the demand-side boost weakens, and the supply-demand game continues, with the overall market moving in an oscillatory manner. The live hog 2603 contract closed down 0.8% on the day, with frequent short-term fluctuations and no strong trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs was 11,720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 171,271 lots, a decrease of 144 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 918 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -52,290 lots, a decrease of 108 lots [2] Spot Market - The live hog price in Zhumadian, Henan was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin it was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the main live hog basis was 1,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory was 43,680 million heads, an increase of 1,233 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 3,990 million heads, a decrease of 45 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase in CPI was 0.5%; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton; the corn spot price decreased by 1.96%; the DCE pig feed cost index was 906.78, an increase of 2.78; the monthly feed output was 29,779,000 tons, an increase of 209,000 tons; the price of二元能繁母猪 was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -48.35 yuan/head, an increase of 95.52 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self-reared live hogs was -34.59 yuan/head; the monthly pork import volume was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the average price of white-striped chickens in the main producing areas was 14.1 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 39.57 billion yuan; the monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises was 60.57 million heads, an increase of 8.58 million heads [2] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's key breeding enterprise sample data, the daily live hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide on January 8, 2026 was 277,238 heads, an increase of 4.27% from the previous day. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in January decreased month-on-month, and the supply of fattened pigs was tight. On the demand side, it is currently the peak demand season, but after the New Year's Day stocking ended, demand declined from a small peak, and the terminal consumption's acceptance of price increases was limited [2]