瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260108

Report Overview - The report is a methanol industry daily report dated January 8, 2026, provided by Ruida Futures [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2200 - 2300 in the short - term. There is an expected reduction in imports in January, and port methanol inventory may decline from its high level. The average weekly operation rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins has slightly increased, but there is an expectation of a load reduction in the MTO industry as the maintenance plan in East China is implemented [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2231 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is - 4 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 870199 lots, an increase of 51352 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 176203 lots, a decrease of 38027 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 8205, unchanged [3] 3.2现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2255 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; in Inner Mongolia, it is 1857.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan. The East - Northwest price difference is 397.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 12 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan. The CFR price at the Chinese main port is 268 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar; in Southeast Asia, it is 322 dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged. The price difference between the Chinese main port and Southeast Asia is - 54 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.56 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.13 dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 112.33 tons, up 7.62 tons; in South China ports, it is 41.39 tons, down 1.64 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 7.86 yuan/ton, up 18.37 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, down 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 447700 tons, up 25100 tons. The methanol enterprise operation rate is 90.31%, down 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 38.24%, down 4.19%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 3.6%, down 3.49%; the acetic acid operation rate is 80.3%, up 2.71%; the MTBE operation rate is 68.01%, unchanged; the olefin operation rate is 87.46%, down 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins profit on the futures market is - 1009 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 19.82%, up 0.65%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.9%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.19%, up 0.64%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.19%, up 0.62% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 44.77 tons, up 2.51 tons (a 5.94% increase); the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 23.75 tons, up 2.95 tons (a 14.16% increase). The total inventory in Chinese methanol ports is 153.72 tons, up 4.08 tons. East China has accumulated inventory (up 5.72 tons), while South China has reduced inventory (down 1.64 tons). Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts in domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall production [3]