Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Methanol: The inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on significant inventory reduction. However, the pre - condition for significant inventory reduction is high MTO开工. Currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. There are expected to be 2 - 3 Venezuelan ships per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Pay attention to subsequent developments. In the short term, shipments may remain normal. Also, monitor the change in oil prices. The upside of methanol is limited because other downstream sectors are weak, but if oil prices boost other sectors, the upside may be unlocked [2]. - Plastic (Polyethylene): The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina (two - oil) is neutral year - on - year. Upstream two - oil and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, social inventory is flat, downstream raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differentials are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The number of September maintenance is flat month - on - month, and the recent domestic linear production has decreased month - on - month. Pay attention to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. In 2025, the pressure from new plants is significant, so focus on the commissioning of new plants [6]. - Polypropylene: The upstream two - oil and mid - stream inventories are reducing. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price differential is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. The non - standard price differential is neutral. The PDH profit is around - 400, propylene is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The拉丝 production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderate to excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7]. - PVC: The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, focus on the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly declined. The coal market sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. Pay attention to whether subsequent export orders can support the price of high - grade caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, downstream performance is mediocre, and the macro - environment is neutral. Pay attention to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]. 3. Data Summaries Methanol | Date |动力煤期货|江苏现货|华南现货|鲁南折盘面|西南折盘面|河北折盘面|西北折盘面|CFR中国|CFR东南亚|进口利润|主力基差|盘面MTO利润| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 801 | 2210 | 2193 | 2345 | 2450 | 2315 | 2430 | 258 | 320 | 1 | - 25 | - | | 2026/01/05 | 801 | 2233 | 2205 | 2350 | - | 2315 | 2448 | 258 | 320 | 25 | - 2 | - | | 2026/01/06 | 801 | 2275 | 2248 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2450 | 266 | 322 | 22 | 10 | - | | 2026/01/07 | 801 | 2285 | 2250 | 2350 | - | 2345 | 2443 | 268 | 322 | 8 | 0 | - | | 2026/01/08 | 801 | 2230 | 2220 | 2340 | - | 2345 | 2448 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | |日度变化| 0 | - 55 | - 30 | - 10 | - | 0 | 5 | - | - | - | - 10 | - | [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) | Date |东北亚乙烯|华北LL|华东LL|华东LD|华东HD|LL美金|LL美湾|进口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 745 | 6300 | 6575 | 8325 | 6850 | 740 | 786 | 231 | 6472 | - 170 | 63 | 11353 | | 2026/01/05 | 745 | 6300 | 6625 | 8700 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 281 | 6449 | - 180 | - | 11350 | | 2026/01/06 | 745 | 6400 | 6625 | 8775 | 6900 | 740 | 786 | 285 | 6579 | - 160 | - | 11324 | | 2026/01/07 | 745 | 6480 | 6625 | 8800 | 6900 | 765 | 786 | 68 | 6642 | - 160 | - | 11540 | | 2026/01/08 | - | 6480 | 6700 | 8925 | 6950 | - | - | - | 6628 | - 160 | - | 11365 | |日度变化| - | 0 | 75 | 125 | 50 | - | - | - | - 14 | 0 | - | - 175 | [6] Polypropylene | Date |山东丙烯|东北亚丙烯|华东PP|华北PP|山东粉料|华东共聚|PP美金|PP美湾|出口利润|主力期货|基差|两油库存|仓单| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 5680 | 710 | 6140 | 6110 | 6060 | 6394 | 765 | 820 | - 9 | 6348 | - 200 | 63 | 15445 | | 2026/01/05 | 5730 | 710 | 6210 | 6165 | 6120 | 6460 | 765 | 830 | - 16 | 6330 | - 150 | - | 15445 | | 2026/01/06 | 5770 | 710 | 6180 | 6185 | 6120 | 6506 | 765 | 830 | - 19 | 6423 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/07 | 5770 | 710 | 6240 | 6230 | 6180 | 6534 | 770 | - | - | 6486 | - 200 | - | 15465 | | 2026/01/08 | 5800 | 710 | 6315 | 6283 | 6250 | 6534 | - | - | - | 6484 | - 200 | - | 15465 | |日度变化| 30 | 0 | 75 | 53 | 70 | 0 | - | - | - | - 2 | 0 | - | 0 | [7] PVC | Date |西北电石|山东烧碱|电石法 - 华东|乙烯法 - 华东|电石法 - 华南|电石法 - 西北|进口美金价（CFR中国）|出口利润|西北综合利润|华北综合利润|基差(高端交割品)| | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2025/12/31 | 2300 | 717 | 4600 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 126 | - | - | - 260 | | 2026/01/05 | 2300 | 715 | 4530 | - | - | 4180 | 640 | 139 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/06 | 2300 | 715 | 4660 | - | - | 4230 | 640 | 69 | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/07 | 2350 | 715 | 4730 | - | - | 4330 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | | 2026/01/08 | 2400 | 715 | 4710 | - | - | 4350 | - | - | - | - | - 250 | |日度变化| 50 | 0 | - 20 | - | - | 20 | - | - | - | - | 0 | [7]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260109
Yong An Qi Huo·2026-01-09 01:44