油料周报-20260111

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply of soymeal remains loose, with sufficient imported soybeans, stable production, and high inventory, while demand is in a seasonal slump and external factors exert long - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Rapeseed meal supply is currently tight but may face increased pressure in the long - term due to potential policy changes, and demand is weak in the winter [3] - For cooking oils, different oils have different supply - demand situations and are affected by various factors such as production, inventory, consumption, and policies [37][38][39] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soymeal - Supply: Imported soybean arrivals are sufficient (6 million tons expected in January), oil mill operating rates are around 54%, production is stable, and inventory, though decreasing for two consecutive weeks, remains at a historically high level (1.05 million tons) [2] - Demand: Downstream feed enterprises have high inventory (physical inventory up 55% year - on - year), and pig farming losses suppress procurement enthusiasm. Demand is in a seasonal slump, and purchases are mainly made on a need - to - use basis [2] - External Factors: The expected high yield of South American soybeans (Brazil's production is expected to be 177 million tons) suppresses US soybean prices, reducing domestic import costs and exerting long - term downward pressure on soymeal [2] Rapeseed Meal - Supply: Domestic rapeseed inventory has dropped to a historical low (coastal oil mill inventory is close to zero), and crushing volume has stagnated for 6 consecutive weeks. It currently relies on port granular rapeseed meal inventory (474,200 tons), but delayed Australian rapeseed arrivals have led to a tight supply [3] - Demand: Aquaculture is in a winter slump, with daily提货量 only in the hundreds of tons, and the demand for poultry feed addition is limited. The widening price difference between soymeal and rapeseed meal weakens the substitution advantage of rapeseed meal [3] - Policy Variables: The visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China has raised expectations of a loosening of rapeseed import policies. If anti - dumping tax adjustments are implemented, long - term supply pressure will increase significantly, suppressing price flexibility [3] Cooking Oils Soybean Oil - Supply: The weekly output of imported soybean crushing remains high, and soybean oil output is stable. However, inventory has been decreasing, and pre - Spring Festival stocking supports the spot market [37] - Demand: Catering consumption is gradually recovering, and purchases of small - packaged oils are increasing, but terminal stocking efforts are lower than expected, and the spot market remains strong [37] - External Linkage: Crude oil may have a certain impact [37] Palm Oil - Supply: Malaysia's inventory reached 2.835 million tons in December, a five - year high, and domestic port inventory has also increased to 765,000 tons, indicating significant supply pressure [38] - Demand: The recovery of domestic catering consumption has driven edible demand, and the biodiesel blending policy supports industrial demand, but high inventory suppresses price flexibility [38] - Policy Game: Indonesia plans to raise the export tax from 10% to 15%, and the implementation of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain [38] Rapeseed Oil - Supply: Domestic rapeseed crushing volume has decreased by 48% year - on - year (2.97 million tons accumulated in 2025), and rapeseed oil production has decreased significantly. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed imports (estimated at 300,000 - 400,000 tons) will ease the raw material shortage, and long - term supply is expected to be loose [39] - Demand: Pre - Spring Festival stocking supports short - term demand, but high prices suppress procurement enthusiasm, the basis has declined, and the spot market is weakening [39] - Policy Impact: Expectations of improved China - Canada trade relations are rising. If Canadian rapeseed imports resume, it will further suppress the premium of rapeseed oil, and prices will face long - term downward pressure [39]