铜周报：铜价延续上涨趋势-20260111

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - AI, defense, and new energy sectors drive global copper demand growth. Goldman Sachs raises the 2026 copper price forecast, and the supply - demand gap continues to widen [4]. - Copper ore processing fees decline, smelters' losses expand, and miners' production turns to a year - on - year decrease. Resource shortages shift from expectation to reality [4]. - SMM social inventory increases by 19,600 tons to 273,800 tons weekly, and the inventory accumulation pressure restrains the spot market performance [4]. - High copper prices suppress downstream procurement, terminal orders slow down, the refined - scrap copper price difference remains at 4,401 yuan/ton, and scrap copper substitution advantage is obvious [4]. - In the short term, copper prices face downward pressure and correction due to capital profit - taking and inventory accumulation. In the medium term, the demand logic of AI and energy transition remains unchanged, and copper prices may continue a relatively strong pattern after adjustment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 101,410 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.23%. The position is 188,674, with a weekly decrease of 19,572, and the trading volume is 303,818 [6]. - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 101,451 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.20%. The position is 617,743, with a weekly decrease of 41,184, and the trading volume is 594,678 [6]. - The latest price of International Copper is 90,150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. The position is 7,403, with a weekly increase of 189, and the trading volume is 15,155 [6]. - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is 12,702 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.64%. The position is 239,014, with a weekly decrease of 38,282, and the trading volume is 35,292 [6]. - The latest price of COMEX Copper is 580.6 US dollars, with a weekly increase of 1.97%. The position is 143,390, with a weekly increase of 477, and the trading volume is 66,816 [6]. Copper Spot Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,085 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,465 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.57% [10]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade is 102,530 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,955 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.08% [10]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 102,560 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,900 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 5.02% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 102,620 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4,810 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 4.92% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 45 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 145 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 76.32% [11]. - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trade premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 215 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 81.13% [11]. - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is - 20 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 235 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 92.16% [11]. - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 5 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 130 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 104% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is 16.75 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 13.64 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 44.88% [11]. - The latest price of LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is 101.46 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 73.34 US dollars and a weekly decrease rate of 41.96% [11]. Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest copper import profit and loss is - 788.51 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 700.97 yuan and a weekly decrease rate of 47.06% [12]. - The latest copper concentrate TC is - 44.76 US dollars/ton, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [12]. - The latest copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1569, with a weekly decrease of 0.1998 and a weekly decrease rate of 4.59% [12]. - The latest refined - scrap copper price difference is 4,834.4 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,339.13 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 38.31% [12]. Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The latest total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 111,216 tons, with a weekly increase of 29,441 tons and a weekly increase rate of 36% [18]. - The latest total International Copper warehouse receipts are 1,053 tons, with a weekly change of 0 and a weekly change rate of 0% [18]. - The latest SHFE copper inventory is 145,342 tons, with a weekly increase of 33,639 tons and a weekly increase rate of 30.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 115,150 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,550 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.11% [18]. - The latest LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 25,925 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,900 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 29.6% [19]. - The latest LME copper inventory is 141,075 tons, with a weekly decrease of 6,350 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 4.31% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 321,107 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,756 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.8% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 193,850 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,140 tons and a weekly increase rate of 4.38% [19]. - The latest COMEX copper inventory is 514,957 tons, with a weekly increase of 16,896 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.39% [19]. - The latest copper ore port inventory is 670,000 tons, with a weekly decrease of 10,000 tons and a weekly decrease rate of 1.47% [19]. - The latest social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19]. Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production is 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production is 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% [22]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production is 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production is 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [22]. Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of refined copper rods is 15.84 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 63.31%, with a monthly increase of 7.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5% [24]. - In November 2025, the total annual production capacity of scrap copper rods is 8.19 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 23.59%, with a monthly decrease of 0.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.73% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper strips is 3.59 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 64.48%, with a monthly decrease of 1.96% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper rods is 2.2865 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 56.72%, with a monthly increase of 2.64% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46% [24]. - In December 2025, the total annual production capacity of copper tubes is 2.783 million tons, the capacity utilization rate is 61.59%, with a monthly increase of 1.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99% [24]. Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In November 2025, the monthly copper concentrate import volume is 2.526194 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 13%. The cumulative import volume is 27.615499 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly anode copper import volume is 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import volume is 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly cathode copper import volume is 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import volume is 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly scrap copper import volume is 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import volume is 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% [28]. - In November 2025, the monthly copper product import volume is 430,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import volume is 4,880,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [28].