中国房地产指数系统百城价格指数报告（2025年12月）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the real estate industry. Core Insights - The average price of new residential properties in 100 cities in December was 17,084 RMB/square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 0.28% and a year-on-year increase of 2.58% [3][8] - The average price of second-hand residential properties in the same cities was 13,016 RMB/square meter, showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 8.36% [3][12] - The average rental price in 50 cities was 34.16 RMB/square meter/month, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.62% [3][17] Market Performance - In December, new residential prices saw structural increases in cities like Shenzhen, Beijing, and Shanghai, while the overall market remains in a bottoming phase [5][6] - The second-hand housing market continues to experience high listing volumes, with significant month-on-month price declines [5] - The rental market is in a traditional off-season, with low demand and continued price declines in rental properties [5] Policy Developments - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and implementing city-specific policies to control inventory and improve supply [4] - Recent policy changes include reducing the value-added tax on personal housing sales and easing purchase restrictions for non-local residents and families with multiple children in cities like Beijing and Shanghai [4] - The government aims to accelerate the construction of affordable housing and improve the housing provident fund system [4][6] Price Index Analysis - In December, 26 cities experienced an increase in new residential prices, while 68 cities saw declines [9] - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities increased by 0.81% month-on-month, while second-tier cities saw a 0.16% increase [8] - For second-hand properties, 100 cities reported a uniform price decline, with 27 cities experiencing declines exceeding 1% [13] Future Outlook - The year 2026 is expected to be crucial for stabilizing the real estate market, with policies likely to be implemented to optimize restrictions in core cities and promote the acquisition of existing properties [6] - The report forecasts a 6.2% year-on-year decrease in new residential sales area in 2026, with price performance expected to remain differentiated [6]