LPG早报-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The internal market rose and then fluctuated. The 02 basis was 179 (+51), the 02 - 03 monthly spread was 85 (-34), and the 03 - 04 monthly spread was -192 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 6218 lots (-180). The price of civil gas increased, with Shandong at 4400 (+40), East China at 4467 (+70), and South China at 4840 (+75). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - after 4390 (-90). The absolute price of paper goods rose. The FEI and CP monthly spreads decreased slightly, and the MB monthly spread increased slightly. The oil - gas ratio fluctuated. Both the internal and external markets strengthened, with PG - FEI reaching 86.7 (+9.7) and PG - CP reaching 80 (+9). The CIF discount of propane in East China, China, was 79 (+13) [4]. - Overall, the internal and external valuations were relatively high. In terms of the external market drive, the short - term supply and demand remained tight, but the buying interest for Middle - East shipments in February weakened. After the fog in the United States dissipated, the supply pressure was still high, and the end of the combustion demand was approaching. It was expected that the fundamentals of the external market would weaken subsequently. The valuation of the internal 02 contract was neutral, and the drive should focus on whether there would be negative feedback under the low profit of PDH and the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts. The 3 - 4 monthly spread valuation was relatively high, and the key was to pay attention to the subsequent situation of warehouse receipts [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Daily Situation - From January 5th to January 9th, 2026, the prices of LPG in different regions (South China, East China, Shandong, etc.), propane CFR South China, paper import profits, and other data showed certain fluctuations. For example, on January 9th, compared with previous days, there were changes such as the price of Shandong LPG at 4467, and the paper import profit at 285 [4]. - As of Monday, 8:16 am, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 515 and 522 US dollars respectively, up 10 and 4 respectively from 8 pm on Friday [4]. Weekly Situation - The port storage capacity ratio increased by 0.14 pct due to limited arrivals; the refinery inventory decreased slightly by -0.47%, and the external supply increased by 1.07% [4].