农产品早报-20260112

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Corn prices are expected to remain strong in the short - term due to limited supply and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, import and domestic auction policies should be monitored [3]. - Starch prices are likely to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short - term. After the seasonal peak, inventory depletion will be the key factor for pricing [3]. - For sugar, the international market anticipates increased production in the 25/26 season. In the domestic market, short - term pricing depends on domestic sugar costs, while long - term pricing may move towards out - of - quota import costs [6]. - Cotton is suitable for long - term long positions as demand is expected to improve next year due to expanding textile production, good profits, and positive trade relations [9]. - For eggs, the key to future inventory decline is the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it will benefit egg prices in the second quarter [13]. - Apple prices show strong high - quality goods and weak general - quality goods. The short - term futures may maintain high - level fluctuations, and the medium - term pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term [16]. - For pigs, there is an expectation of both supply and demand increase before the Spring Festival. Price increases depend on further production and inventory reduction in the short - term [16] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Corn/Starch - Corn: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions remained stable, with a 10 - unit increase in the蛇口 price. The basis increased by 3 units, trade profit by 10 units, and import profit by 35 units [2]. - Starch: From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions were unchanged, and the basis increased by 11 units, while processing profit remained the same [2] Sugar - From January 5 - 9, spot prices in some regions were stable. The basis decreased by 9 units, and import profit increased by 27 units. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - From January 5 - 9, the 3128 cotton price decreased by 100 units, and the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 250 units. The 32S spinning profit increased by 105 units [17]. Eggs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions increased slightly. The basis increased by 7 units, and the price of substitutes such as pigs increased by 0.08 units [13]. Apples - From January 5 - 9, the spot price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples was stable. The national inventory decreased by 158,000 tons, and Shandong inventory decreased by 21,000 tons [15][16]. Pigs - From January 5 - 9, prices in some regions had minor fluctuations, and the basis remained unchanged [16].