大越期货沪镍、不锈钢早报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For Shanghai Nickel 2602, short - term fluctuations are large, and intraday trading is recommended [3] - For Stainless Steel 2602, it is expected to run with a moderately strong trend, and short - sellers should wait [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Nickel 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Last week, nickel prices rose first and then fell but remained in an overall upward trend. Short - term spot supplies are tight. Nickel ore prices increased slightly, and mines are bullish. Nickel iron prices rose significantly, and the cost line increased. Stainless steel inventories decreased. Refined nickel inventories remained high, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited (bearish) [4] 3.1.2 Basis - The spot price is 141,900, and the basis is 2,810 (bullish) [4] 3.1.3 Inventory - LME inventory is 284,790 (+8,490), and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 38,856 (-474) (bearish) [4] 3.1.4 Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward (bullish) [4] 3.1.5 Main Position - The main position is net long, and long positions increased (bullish) [4] 3.2 Stainless Steel 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Spot stainless steel prices fell. Short - term nickel ore prices were stable with a strengthening trend, ocean freight decreased slightly, mines were firm in holding prices, nickel iron prices continued to rebound, the cost line increased, and stainless steel inventories decreased (neutral to bullish) [6] 3.2.2 Basis - The average stainless steel price is 14,537.5, and the basis is 677.5 (bullish) [6] 3.2.3 Inventory - Futures warehouse receipts are 47,535 (+506) (neutral) [6] 3.2.4 Market Chart - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward (bullish) [6] 3.3 Price Overview - For Shanghai Nickel, the main contract price on January 9 was 139,090, up 2,650 from January 8. The LME nickel price was 17,700, up 635. SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price on January 8 was 141,900, down 7,150 from January 7 [12] - For stainless steel, the main contract price on January 9 was 13,860, up 185 from January 8. Cold - rolled coil prices in major regions remained unchanged on January 8 compared to January 7 [12] 3.4 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of January 9, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 46,650 tons, with futures inventory at 38,856 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons and 1,190 tons respectively. LME inventory was 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons. The total inventory was 323,646 tons, an increase of 8,016 tons [14][15] 3.5 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On January 9, the inventory in Wuxi was 554,200 tons, in Foshan was 263,800 tons, and the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 29,100 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 608,600 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons. Stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 47,535 tons, an increase of 506 tons [18][19] 3.6 Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - Red soil nickel ore CIF prices for Ni1.5% and Ni0.9% remained unchanged at 55 and 29 US dollars per wet ton respectively on January 9 compared to January 8. High - nickel wet ton prices were 956.94 yuan per nickel point, up 2.33 yuan, and low - nickel wet ton prices remained unchanged at 3,350 yuan per ton [23] 3.7 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,339 yuan, the scrap steel production cost is 13,696 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 17,857 yuan [25] 3.8 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price is 140,694 yuan per ton [28]