大越期货螺卷早报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low procurement willingness of traders, and the real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it is recommended to take a volatile and bearish approach [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as weakening supply and demand, increasing inventory, blocked exports, and the impact of domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Fundamentals: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' procurement willingness is still weak. The real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot price of rebar is 3290, and the basis is 146, which is bullish [2]. - Inventory: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 2.9018 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is bullish [2]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [2]. - Main positions: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - Likely factors: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3]. - Negative factors: The downstream real - estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak, lower than the same period [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - Fundamentals: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role, which is neutral [7]. - Basis: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3270, and the basis is - 24, which is bearish [7]. - Inventory: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.9081 million tons, increasing month - on - month and year - on - year, which is neutral [7]. - Disk: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is long, and long positions are increasing, which is bullish [7]. - Likely factors: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9]. - Negative factors: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10].