大越期货尿素早报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de-stocking pattern. Order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, with the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine being neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Overview 3.1.1 Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year-on-year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de-stocking pattern is obvious. Order demand has improved significantly, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is mainly based on needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are neutral. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports, and the recent demand for low-cost replenishment is relatively concentrated. The domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. 3.1.2 Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -26, and the premium/discount ratio is -1.5%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (-34,000 tons), indicating a neutral situation [4]. 3.1.4 Futures Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. 3.1.5 Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. 3.1.6 Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The operating rate is expected to continue to rise, order demand has improved, reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is de-stocking. The UR is expected to fluctuate strongly today [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Urea Market 3.2.1 Bullish Factors - Inventory de-stocking and improved orders [5]. 3.2.2 Bearish Factors - Domestic oversupply [5]. 3.2.3 Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market Conditions - The spot price of the delivery product is 1750, with no change; the price of the Shandong spot is 1750, down 10; the price of the Henan spot is 1750, with no change; the FOB China price is 2793. The price of the UR05 contract is 1777, up 1; the price of the UR01 contract is 1690, up 5; the price of the UR09 contract is 1754, down 2. The basis of the UR05 contract is -27, down 1. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons, down 34,000 tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons, up 3,000 tons; the UR port inventory is 135,000 tons, down 37,000 tons [6]. 3.4 Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]