焦煤焦炭早报（2026-1-12）-20260112

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Coking Coal: The main - producing area coal mines are gradually resuming production, with a loose production expectation. Market activity has slightly recovered, and some coal prices have stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight upward - probing expectation for some mines. The short - term coking coal price is expected to remain stable. Although the profit of coking enterprises has declined, their production enthusiasm remains high, and there is still a certain rigid demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage [2]. - Coke: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has continued to rebound. The supply - demand pattern of coke has gradually improved, and the cost support is expected to strengthen. The short - term coke price is expected to remain stable [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Main - producing area coal mines are resuming production, market inquiries have increased, and some speculative demands have emerged. Coal mines are less willing to cut prices further, and some coal prices have stopped falling [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1200, and the basis is 4.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - Main Position: The main position of coking coal is net long, with a decrease in long positions [2]. - Expectation: With the end of environmental protection and maintenance, some steel mills are resuming production, and the coking enterprises' demand for raw material replenishment and winter storage remains. The short - term price is expected to be stable [2]. - Coke - Fundamentals: Coke enterprises' shipment is good, steel mills' procurement enthusiasm has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to the stop - falling of some coal prices [6]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 118, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - Inventory: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - Main Position: The main position of coke is net long, with a decrease in long positions [6]. - Expectation: Driven by multiple positive factors, the futures market has rebounded, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The short - term price is expected to be stable [5]. Influencing Factors - Coking Coal - Positive: Iron - water production has increased, and supply is difficult to increase [4]. - Negative: Coking and steel enterprises have slowed down the procurement of raw coal, and steel prices are weak [4]. - Coke - Positive: Iron - water production and blast - furnace operating rate have increased [8]. - Negative: Steel mills' profit margins are squeezed, and the replenishment demand has been partially overdrawn [8]. Price The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on January 9th (17:30), including prices of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10]. Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - Steel Mills Inventory: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. Other Data - Coking Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].