氯碱周报：SH：供应预期增加，价格重回弱势震荡，V：PVC出口退税取消，短期消极情绪拖累盘面-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Caustic Soda: Affected by macro - sentiment, the post - holiday caustic soda futures market fluctuated greatly, and the spot market price was generally weak. Supply increased slightly, demand lacked substantial improvement, and the price was expected to remain stable with a weakening trend [3]. - PVC: The domestic PVC market continued to be strong after the holiday, but the fundamentals were weak. With expected increase in domestic production and weakening demand, along with the cancellation of export tax rebates, the short - term pessimistic sentiment might drag down the PVC trend [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Caustic Soda - Price and Market Situation: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda decreased in most regions, except in Inner Mongolia. The market was affected by macro factors, and the downstream and traders' enthusiasm for purchasing was average [3]. - Supply: The industry's operating rate increased slightly this week, and the inventory of caustic soda increased. The national weighted average operating rate was 88.91%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China and Shandong increased [21][27]. - Demand: The demand from the main downstream industries remained stable at the rigid - demand level. Some areas had an expected decline in alumina prices, which put pressure on caustic soda prices [3]. - Device Dynamics: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 1.42 tons. Hubei Xingrui planned semi - load maintenance from January 15th to February 5th [28][30]. - Alumina: The planned production capacity from the end of 2024 to 2025 was 12.3 million tons, with an estimated annual output of over 88 million tons in 2025. The demand for caustic soda increased by about 800,000 tons. The short - term domestic alumina price was expected to decline, ranging from 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton [34][38]. - Bauxite: The price was stable, and the inventory was somewhat depleted [41]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production remained high, and the in - plant inventory decreased [47]. - Non - Aluminum Downstream: The operating rate declined, and the off - season was approaching [52]. - Caustic Soda Export: In November, exports weakened, and the estimated export profit increased slightly [57]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - Price and Market Situation: The PVC spot price rebounded slightly this week, affected by overseas device disturbances. The industry's profit was slightly repaired [65][70]. - Profit: The price increase led to a slight repair of the industry's profit [70]. - Supply: The operating rate of the domestic PVC powder industry increased this week. The overall operating rate was 78.85%, up 1.51 percentage points from last week [80][86]. - Device Dynamics: This week, there were fewer maintenance enterprises, and the total maintenance loss was 36,300 tons, a decrease from last week. Next week, the maintenance loss was expected to change little [87][89]. - Downstream Demand: The two main downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. Domestic demand did not improve significantly, and downstream orders were lower than the same period in the past five years [94]. - Real Estate Data: The real estate industry was still in the bottom - building cycle [95]. - Inventory: The total inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [102]. - External Market and Export: Some external market prices weakened. In November 2025, the PVC export volume was 275,300 tons, and the import volume was 15,700 tons [109][120].