大越期货沪铝早报-20260112

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. However, the spot is at a discount to the futures. Copper inventories have mixed trends, and the price hit a new high with high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to position control [4] - Aluminum: There is a game between interest - rate cuts and weak demand. Factors such as carbon - neutrality controlling capacity expansion, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine affecting Russian aluminum supply, and interest - rate cuts are positive. On the other hand, the global economic outlook is not optimistic and high aluminum prices may suppress downstream consumption, and the cancellation of export tax rebates for aluminum products are negative factors [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - Fundamentals: Supply - side disturbances, smelting enterprise production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and the December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% (up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) are positive factors [4] - Basis: The spot price is 100,570 with a basis of - 840, indicating a discount to the futures, which is a negative factor [4] - Inventory: On January 9, copper inventory decreased by 2,100 to 138,975 tons, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 35,201 tons to 180,543 tons compared to the previous week, showing a neutral situation [4] - Market Chart: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, which is positive [4] - Main Position: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is positive [4] - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances in Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine event are ongoing, and the copper price hit a new high with large - scale high - level fluctuations. Position control is necessary [4] Aluminum - Spot Price: The Shanghai spot price was 70,770, down 375; the Nanchu spot price was 70,690, down 450; the Yangtze River spot price was 70,870, down 400 [6] - Inventory: The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory was 70,798 tons, an increase of 699 tons; the LME inventory (daily) was 74,750 tons, a decrease of 425 tons; the SHFE inventory (weekly) was 136,300 tons, an increase of 29,728 tons [6] - Supply - Demand Balance: From 2018 - 2023, China's aluminum market was generally in a supply - shortfall situation, with shortages ranging from 4.31 to 68.61 million tons. In 2024, it is expected to have a supply surplus of 15 million tons [25]