镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20260112

Report Overview - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - Indonesia's production cut plan: Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production by 34%, leading to expectations of supply tightening and stimulating a rebound and limit - up in futures prices [3] - Recovery in stainless steel demand: The strong performance of stainless steel mill prices, along with the recovery of terminal demand, supports the upward space for nickel prices despite high inventory costs [3] Bearish Factors - Strong US dollar: The continuous strengthening of the US dollar index reduces the pricing competitiveness of commodities and suppresses the price performance of non - ferrous metals [3] - High inventory: Global nickel inventories continue to accumulate, especially the high level of visible inventories, weakening market concerns about supply - demand tightness [3] Trading Advisory Viewpoint - Although Indonesia's policy stimulus boosts expectations, the improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines and pay attention to the actual implementation of policies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest value of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 139,090 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 710 yuan and a weekly decline of 0.51%. Other contracts like Shanghai nickel continuous one, two, and three have different price changes and percentage increases. LME nickel 3M is at 17,700 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 410 dollars and a 3.60% increase [4] - Stainless Steel Futures: The main contract of stainless steel is at 13,860 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 465 yuan and a 3% increase. Other contracts also show price increases. The trading volume and open interest have significant increases [5] - Spot Prices: The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel have all decreased by 7,150 yuan/ton, with percentage declines ranging from 4.67% to 4.96% [5] - Inventory Data: Domestic social nickel inventory is 61,046 tons, an increase of 2,126 tons; LME nickel inventory is 284,790 tons, an increase of 8,490 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 854,600 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 29,346 tons, a decrease of 879 tons [7] Supply - Side Information - Primary Nickel Supply: Information on China's refined nickel monthly production, primary nickel monthly total supply including imports shows seasonal trends [13] - Upstream Nickel Ore: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory, and the prices of different types of nickel pig iron (such as 8 - 12% and Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron) are presented with historical data [16][18] - Nickel Iron Production: China and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production shows seasonal patterns [19][20] Downstream Information - Nickel Sulfate: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, its premium over primary nickel, production profit margins, monthly production, and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors are all presented with historical data [22][24][25] - Stainless Steel: The profit margin of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils, monthly production, and inventory show seasonal trends [28][30][31]