Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for precious metals lies in the choices of sovereign funds against the backdrop of de - dollarization. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. There has been a relatively significant increase in domestic gold warehouse receipts, a significant decrease in US gold warehouse receipts, and a sharp drop in domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold AU - Viewpoint: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - Fundamentals: Include the Venezuela situation (US military action, leadership changes, oil supply, and sanctions), Trump's plan to acquire Greenland and related international reactions, US initial jobless claims data (208,000 in the week ending January 3rd, lower than expected), and non - farm payroll report (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate in December, 584,000 increase in 2025) [2] Silver AG - Viewpoint: The demand for precious metals is due to the choices of sovereign funds in the de - dollarization context. The medium - term depreciation of the US dollar and the decline of the near - end yield curve support precious metals. Domestic gold warehouse receipts have increased significantly, while US gold warehouse receipts have decreased significantly. Domestic and foreign silver warehouse receipts have dropped sharply [2] - Fundamentals: Similar to those of gold, covering the Venezuela situation, Trump's plan for Greenland, US economic data such as initial jobless claims and non - farm payrolls [3] One - Week Policy and Fundamental Review - International events include the Venezuela "three - hour lightning war", Yemen military conflict, Iran's handling of internal unrest, OPEC+ decision on production suspension, Samsung and SK Hynix's plan to raise server memory prices, and high - tech developments like Qualcomm's robot technology [6] - US economic data includes ADP employment increase of 41,000 in December (lower than expected), initial jobless claims of 208,000 in the week ending January 3rd (lower than expected), 2025 October trade deficit of $29.4 billion (the smallest since June 2009), and non - farm payroll details (50,000 increase in December, 76,000 downward revision in October and November combined, 4.4% unemployment rate) [6] - Political events involve Trump's various threats and plans, such as threatening Cuba, planning to acquire Greenland, and discussing the next Fed chairperson [6] Gold Market Tracking - Positions: The latest long - position of COMEX gold futures and options managed funds is 122,450 contracts, short - position is 35,978 contracts. SPDR gold ETF holding is 862 tons, iShares gold ETF holding is 402 tons, and the futures position of gold in Shanghai is 407,927 hands [7] - Changes: In 5 days, the long - position ratio decreased by 4%, short - position ratio decreased by 1%, and the futures position increased by 16,492 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 5,556 contracts, short - position increased by 2,599 contracts [7] Silver Market Tracking - Positions: The latest long - position of COMEX silver futures and options managed funds is 44,277 contracts, short - position is 27,801 contracts. SLV silver ETF holding is 13,802 tons, and the futures position of silver in Shanghai is 971,795 hands [12] - Changes: In 5 days, the long - position increased by 57 contracts, short - position increased by 58 contracts, and the futures position increased by 78,420 hands. In one week, the long - position decreased by 4,423 contracts, short - position decreased by 4,757 contracts [12] Gold and Silver Import Profit Tracking - Import gold and silver hedging profit rates are presented in a time - series graph from July 2024 to December 2025, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [18] Dollar Index Futures Position Tracking - ICE dollar index non - commercial net long - position and total futures position data are presented in a time - series graph from June 2025 to January 2026, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [20] US Treasury Bond Futures Position Tracking - CBOT non - commercial net long - positions of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year US Treasury bond futures and options, as well as the total futures position of US Treasury bonds, are presented in time - series graphs, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [25] US Inflation Expectation - Break - even inflation rates for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented, with values ranging from 2.20 to 2.50 [30] US Real Interest Rate - US Treasury real - yield curves for 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year periods from February 2006 to August 2025 are presented, with values ranging from - 3.00 to 5.00 [32] US Interest Rate Term Structure - US Treasury interest rates, inflation expectations (interpolated linearly within the year), and real interest rates (based on PCE, interpolated linearly within the year) for different maturities (1M - 30Y) are presented, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [35] 2 - Year Treasury Bond Yield Spread between the US and Major Non - US Countries - Yield spreads between the US 2 - year Treasury bond and those of the UK, Japan, China, and Germany from November 2025 to January 2026 are presented. For example, the spread between the US and the UK ranges from - 0.60 to 0.10 [38]
贵金属期货周报-20260112
Dong Ya Qi Huo·2026-01-12 02:07