南华期货苹果产业周报：春节前备货能否驱动盘面进一步上行？-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices include the trends of 03 and 04 contracts and the direction of the 05 contract. The 03 and 04 contracts may be boosted by pre - Spring Festival stocking but face the risk of decline if the peak - season consumption is below expectations. The 05 contract may become a truly short - supply contract and may hit a new high after a follow - up decline [2]. - The near - term trading logic of the 03 contract focuses on Spring Festival consumption. If it is below expectations, the post - festival apple price may drop. The far - term trading logic of the 05 contract is based on pre - holiday stocking expectations and the shortage of deliverable goods, but the quality and hardness issues will continue to affect it [3][4]. - The apple market shows a short - term strong upward trend, with the near - month contracts breaking previous highs, especially the 05 contract. The current disk presents a Contango structure, and the long - position of profitable seats increased last week [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The 03 and 04 contracts are affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but substitutes suppress apple demand. If peak - season consumption is poor, there will be high post - festival de - stocking pressure. The 05 contract may face a shortage after multiple holidays, and its price may hit a new high after a decline [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market shows a short - term strong upward trend. The 05 contract has a larger increase, and the disk is in a Contango structure. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands last week [7]. - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 57.8% [9]. - For inventory management, when worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices, enterprises can buy apple futures and sell put options [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of January 7, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed but still lower than the same period last year [12]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92% lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18% in the past two weeks, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48% [12]. - In the late Fuji apple producing areas, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly this week. Fruit farmers' shipments were concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning, and the overall shipment volume was small with a weak and stable price [12]. - The number of vehicles in the three major wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased compared with last week. Market sales slowed down after New Year's Day, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - The weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [16] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures rose strongly after a previous correction. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally but increased this week, still lower than last year's level. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands. Technically, the 05 contract is short - term strong but faces upper pressure [16]. 3.1.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and frequent changes in futures delivery rules. The 3 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic, but whether it will further strengthen is uncertain. The 03 contract shows a stronger trend [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, with more poor - quality apples and fewer high - quality ones, storage faces great challenges [20]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. The estimated total apple production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, a reduction of 8% (3 million tons) compared with last year. The current cold - storage inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower [22].