永安期货有色早报-20260112

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices have significantly increased recently, driven by the expected US refined copper tariff and investment fund inflows. The future performance of copper prices will depend on terminal demand, US restocking, and China's demand recovery. It is expected to accumulate inventory steeply before the Spring Festival and deplete inventory quickly after the festival [1] - For aluminum, expected trading dominates the changes in futures and spot prices, with amplified price fluctuations. The actual domestic apparent demand is weaker than previously estimated, but strong expectations can support the current high prices [1][2] - Zinc's domestic fundamentals are poor, but there is a temporary reduction in supply at the end of the year. The price may not decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage opportunities for monthly spreads [5] - Nickel's short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a continuation of the game between short - term policies and fundamentals [7] - Stainless steel's fundamentals remain weak, and recent price movements are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] - Lead prices are expected to fluctuate. There are risks associated with low warehouse receipts, and attention should be paid to them [12] - Tin prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong support from fundamentals. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have risen recently, driven by potential disturbances in the resource end, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 0, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 1105, the SHFE inventory increased by 68840, and the LME inventory decreased by 2100 [1] - Market Outlook: The increase in copper prices is due to the expected US tariff and investment inflows. Future performance depends on demand and restocking [1] Aluminum - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 30, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 30, and the domestic aluminum oxide price decreased by 9. The SHFE social inventory increased by 15320 [1] - Market Outlook: Expected trading dominates price changes, with domestic apparent demand weaker than expected but high - price support from strong expectations [1][2] Zinc - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, and the SHFE inventory increased by 889 [5] - Supply and Demand: Supply is tight in the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. Domestic smelters are competing for zinc ore inventory. Demand is seasonally weak domestically and generally average overseas [5] - Strategy: Wait and see for unilateral trading, focus on reverse arbitrage for internal - external trading, and positive arbitrage for monthly spreads [5] Nickel - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 9400, and the LME inventory increased by 8490 [6] - Market Outlook: Short - term fundamentals are weak, and there is a game between policies and fundamentals [7] Stainless Steel - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 304 cold - rolled coil price decreased by 100, and the 304 hot - rolled coil price decreased by 125 [11] - Market Outlook: Fundamentals are weak, and prices are mainly driven by news of Indonesian quotas, following nickel prices in the short term [11] Lead - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot premium decreased by 10, the SHFE inventory increased by 3016, and the LME inventory decreased by 3725 [12] - Supply and Demand: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken. There is a short - term supply - demand mismatch, but it is gradually being alleviated [12] - Market Outlook: Prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of low warehouse receipts [12] Tin - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the spot import return decreased by 16694.67, and the LME inventory increased by 10 [12] - Market Outlook: Prices are expected to rise in the short term, with strong fundamental support. In the long term, demand determines the upside potential [13] Industrial Silicon - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 180, and the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 96 [16] - Market Outlook: Prices are expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term and oscillate at the cycle bottom in the long term [16] Lithium Carbonate - Price and Inventory Data: From January 5 - 9, 2026, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1500, and the warehouse receipt quantity decreased by 410 [19] - Market Outlook: Prices have risen recently, driven by resource - end disturbances, increased processing fees, and macro - sentiment [19]