大越期货聚烯烃早报-20260112

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a polyolefin morning report dated January 12, 2026, provided by Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2] Group 2: LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - In December, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, back in the expansion zone after 8 months. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan in February and March 2026. Recent political unrest in Iran has pushed up international oil prices. In the supply - demand side, greenhouse film demand is falling while mulch film demand is rising, and packaging film orders and production are increasing. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (-20), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4] Other Indicators - The basis of LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium - discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PE comprehensive inventory is 42.5 million tons (+2.6), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of LLDPE is net short and increasing short positions, bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, and short - term recovery in downstream demand, PE is expected to trend slightly stronger today [4] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is that downstream demand is weaker year - on - year. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [6] Group 3: PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation shows the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion zone, OPEC+ maintaining production plan, and rising oil prices due to geopolitical factors. PDH device maintenance has increased. In the supply - demand side, plastic weaving demand is weak and mainly for rigid needs, and pipe demand is average. The current PP delivery spot price is 6380 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [7] Other Indicators - The basis of PP 2605 contract is -134, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.1%, indicating a bearish signal. PP comprehensive inventory is 46.8 million tons (-2.3), neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. The main position of PP is net short and reducing short positions, bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter, geopolitical factors driving up oil prices, neutral industrial inventory, downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and increasing PDH device maintenance, PP is expected to trend sideways today [7] Factors - Bullish factors include cost support and crude oil rebound. Bearish factor is the off - season of downstream demand. The main logic is oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Group 4: Market Data Spot and Futures - For LLDPE, the spot delivery price is 6600 (-20), and the 05 contract price is 6674 (+46). For PP, the spot delivery price is 6380 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6514 (+30) [10] Inventory - LLDPE: Warehouse receipts are 11365 (unchanged), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 42.5 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 48.5 million tons (unchanged). PP: Warehouse receipts are 15445 (-20), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 46.8 million tons (unchanged), and social inventory is 30.4 million tons (unchanged) [10] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rate [17]