Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices rose first and then fell. After a continuous rebound, the correction was relatively rapid. The main cotton contract 05 faces significant pressure around 15,000. After a rapid correction, prices are expected to fluctuate around 14,500 [6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the cotton market. Positive factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Negative factors include a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton prices showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. After continuous rebounds, the correction was relatively fast. The expected reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026 may exceed 10%. According to the USDA December report, the production in the 2025/2026 season is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - Positive factors: Expected reduction of over 10% in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, pre - Chinese New Year inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period [7]. - Negative factors: Decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (December): In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. There are differences in production, consumption, import, and export data among different countries. For example, the US production is expected to increase by 38.1% year - on - year, while Australia's production is expected to decrease by 23.9% year - on - year [11][12]. - ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast (November 2025): The planting area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit area is 835.13 kg/ha, production is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - Ministry of Agriculture's Data: In the 2025/2026 season, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [16]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.
棉花周报（1.5-1.9）-20260112
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-01-12 02:38