大越期货白糖周报-20260112

Report Summary - Report Title: Sugar Weekly Report (1.5 - 1.9) - Reporting Department: Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Reporter: Wang Mingwei 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the range of 5,200 - 5,300, with weak short - term rebound momentum. The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [4][5][8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, sugar generally fluctuated within the 5,200 - 5,300 range, with weak short - term rebound momentum. Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus, with ISO predicting 163,000 tons, DATAGRO reducing the forecast from 280,000 tons to 100,000 tons, Czarnikow increasing the forecast to 740,000 tons, and StoneX predicting 370,000 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and imported 114,400 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The main sugar contract 05 is expected to have a short - term oscillatory rebound, with attention on the resistance around 5,300. Currently, it is the peak season for new sugar listing and the off - season for consumption, so the rebound strength is limited, and it is expected to oscillate and consolidate within the 5,200 - 5,300 range [5][8]. - Positive factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negative factors include an increase in global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the fall of foreign sugar prices to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370,000 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163,000 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons as the global supply is expected to shift significantly from shortage to surplus compared to the previous season [4][31]. - From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane sown area, harvested area, and sugar production in China show an upward trend. The import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, and the consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan per ton [33]. - The cost of imported raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff was about 5,086.1 yuan per ton at the end of October 2025, with considerable import profit due to the continuous decline of international sugar prices [36]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided in the report.