Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The nickel price showed a pattern of rising and then falling this week, but still remained in an upward trend overall. Short - term spot supply was tight. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices rose slightly, and mines were bullish. Nickel iron prices increased significantly, and the cost line went up. Stainless steel inventory declined. Refined nickel inventory remained at a high level, and the oversupply situation remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - The nickel price of the main Shanghai nickel contract was strong. Short - sellers were advised to wait and see, while long - sellers could hold a small amount of positions. The main stainless steel contract was expected to run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait for the moment [9][10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - Shanghai Nickel View: The nickel price rose and then fell this week, still in an upward trend. Short - term spot was in short supply. Nickel ore prices rose slightly, mines were bullish, nickel iron prices increased sharply, cost line rose, stainless steel inventory decreased, refined nickel inventory was high, and the new energy vehicle sector had limited impact on nickel demand [8]. - Operation Strategy: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [9][10]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes: Some nickel ore prices rose slightly, battery - grade and electroplating - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 20.40% and 5.69% respectively, low - nickel iron price remained unchanged, high - nickel iron price rose by 4.86%, electrolytic nickel prices increased, and the 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63% [13][14]. - Nickel Ore Market Situation: Some nickel ore prices rose 1 cent/wet ton, and freight decreased 1 cent/wet ton. On January 8, 2026, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.1977 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.92%. In November 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 28.69% month - on - month and increased by 2.92% year - on - year. Mines were firm on prices [18]. - Electrolytic Nickel Market Situation: The nickel price rose and then fell with large fluctuations and average trading volume. Spot supply was tight. Globally, the nickel market was expected to remain oversupplied. In December 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 2.35% month - on - month and decreased by 16.39% year - on - year. In November 2025, imports increased by 30.07% month - on - month and 40.86% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 20.06% month - on - month and increased by 0.80% year - on - year. LME and SHFE inventories increased [26][27][39]. - Nickel Iron Market Situation: Low - nickel iron price remained stable, and high - nickel iron price rose. In December 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 3.1% month - on - month. In November 2025, imports decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and increased by 1.4% year - on - year. The December inventory was 217,200 physical tons, equivalent to 22,400 nickel tons [46][48][54]. - Stainless Steel Market Situation: The 304 stainless steel price rose by 5.63%. In December, stainless steel production was 3.2605 million tons. Imports were 112,100 tons, and exports were 405,300 tons. On January 9, the national inventory was 948,300 tons, a decrease of 2.91 million tons [59][65][72]. - New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Situation: From January to November, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 31.4% and 31.2% year - on - year respectively. In November, production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively. In November 2025, the production of power + energy - storage batteries was 193GWh, and the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries increased by 12.4% month - on - month and 64.6% year - on - year [77][80]. 3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price continued to rise significantly and deviated from the moving average. There was some competition among long - sellers at high positions. MACD and other indicators were in an upward trend. The price should be followed, but risks should also be noted. A small number of long positions could be held, and short - sellers should wait and see [83]. 4. Industrial Chain Summary - Fundamental View: The impact of the nickel ore link on the nickel price was neutral to strong, with stable prices and bullish mines; the nickel iron link was also neutral to strong, with rising prices and an upward - moving cost line; the refined nickel link was neutral, with short - term supply shortages and long - term oversupply; the stainless steel link was neutral, with falling inventory and rising costs; the new energy link was neutral, with good production data but the continued replacement of ternary batteries [86]. - Trading Strategy: For the main Shanghai nickel contract, short - sellers should wait and see, and long - sellers hold a small number of positions; for the main stainless steel contract, it would run with a slightly upward trend, and short - sellers should wait [88][89].
大越期货沪镍、不锈钢周报-20260112
Da Yue Qi Huo·2026-01-12 02:50