大越期货PVC期货周报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend, but it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. This is due to the expected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in production scheduling next week, while demand may continue to be sluggish, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - Market Performance: This week, the 05 contract was on an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,784 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,897 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [5]. - Supply Side: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of carbide - based enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [5]. - Cost and Inventory: The profit of carbide - based production was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - Price and Volume Trends: There are graphical displays of the price trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the moving averages of 5, 10, 20, 60, and 120 periods. There are also displays of the position trends of the top 5 and top 20 seats [12]. - Basis and Spread Analysis: There are graphical displays of the basis trends and the spread analysis of the main contract [9][15]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Carbide - Based Raw Materials: Graphical displays are provided for the price, cost - profit, and operating rate of semi - coke, as well as the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide. There are also displays for the price, production of liquid chlorine and raw salt, and the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda [17][21][23][25]. - Supply Trends: Graphical displays are provided for the capacity utilization rates of carbide - based and ethylene - based production, the production and maintenance volume of PVC, and the daily production of PVC [29][31]. - Demand Trends: Graphical displays are provided for the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the investment in real estate, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of housing. There are also displays for the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [34][36][40]. - Inventory Situation: Graphical displays are provided for the exchange warehouse receipts, carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [44]. - Ethylene - Based Situation: Graphical displays are provided for the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and the FOB price difference of ethylene - based products and the import price difference of vinyl chloride [46]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 are presented, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, export, and supply - demand differences [50]. 3.4 Technical Analysis This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [54].