工业硅期货周报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: This week, the 05 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will decrease but remain at a high level, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the futures market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - Polysilicon: This week, the 05 contract also declined. It is predicted that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, cost support will stabilize, and the futures market will probably have a neutral sideways adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8855 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8715 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [4]. - Supply: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,400 tons, a 5.28% decrease. Different regions had varying changes in the start - up rate, and it is expected that the monthly start - up rate will be 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase. Different downstream sectors had different performance in demand, inventory, and profit [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 58,345 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 51,300 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 12.07% [7]. - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease. The predicted production scheduling for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [7]. - Demand: Different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components had different trends in production, inventory, and profit. The overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak later [7][8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,400 yuan/ton [7]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread: The report presents the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [16]. - Inventory: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory [19][20]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: It displays the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and start - up rate [23][24][26]. - Cost: It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in different regions such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [30][31]. - Supply - Demand Balance: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [34][37]. - Downstream Industries - Organic Silicon: It includes the price, production, cost - profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products [40][42][45]. - Aluminum Alloy: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, as well as its relationship with the automotive industry [48][51][52]. - Polysilicon: It presents the price, cost, supply - demand balance, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the polysilicon industry [56][59][62]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - For the SI main contract, this week, it showed a downward trend. The report provides price and volume data from December 5, 2025, to January 9, 2026, along with multiple - period moving averages of the closing price. It is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [78][79]. - For the PS main contract, this week, it also declined. It is predicted that next week, the market will probably have a narrow - range sideways adjustment [80][81].