南美大豆丰产预期，豆粕维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the weather in soybean - growing regions [10][13]. - The soybean market is also in a state of shock, with the price affected by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand [11]. - The short - to medium - term trends of the US soybean futures market are mainly driven by the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the demand for soybean meal. It is expected to remain volatile [10][13]. - The soybean market is influenced by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand, also in a state of shock [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean meal market will return to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for soybean meal in January remains strong, supporting the price [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal market will maintain range - bound oscillation, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - growing regions [14]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in January [14]. - With normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [14]. 3.3.3 Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. 3.3.4 Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation leads to an increase in China's procurement of US soybeans [15]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Weather: The short - term weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions is normal, which is bearish. In the future, it is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - Import Cost: The US soybean price remains volatile. Affected by China's procurement of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the import cost is expected to be weakly volatile, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - Oil - Mill Pressing: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short term, but the oil - mill pressing volume has decreased from a high level. The demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the oil - mill operation is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with a bearish impact [9]. - Transaction: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has increased, and the market transaction is expected to continue to rise, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - Oil - Mill Inventory: The oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a high level. With the upstream operation remaining at a relatively high level, the inventory is expected to decline from a high level, with a bullish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [10]. - For soybeans, the main long positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [11]. 3.6 Foreign Soybean Supply and Demand Situation - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The US soybean market is weakly volatile in the short term, affected by the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The high yield of US soybeans and the good planting weather in Brazil suppress the market [35]. - The Fed's interest rate cut in December is a short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market will maintain oscillation in the short term, and the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement are the main drivers of the short - to medium - term trends [35]. - The market focus is on the changes in the planting and growing weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The US soybean market may maintain oscillation above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance [35]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain 3.7.1 Imported Soybean Arrival The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [38]. 3.7.2 Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory - The oil - mill soybean inventory has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains at a high level [39]. - The oil - mill soybean crushing volume has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal production in November increased year - on - year [41]. 3.7.3 Soybean Meal Transaction The domestic mid - and downstream procurement has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [47]. 3.7.4 Pig - Farming Inventory - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year, and it has declined slightly month - on - month [49]. - The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak [51]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures market remains volatile, the spot market is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has rebounded from a low level [62]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot market [67]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term technical indicators have entered a stage of oscillatory consolidation. The high position of the indicators limits the further upward space [67]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be observed [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the uncertainty in the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the short - term increase in domestic demand [69]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillatory consolidation stage. The medium - to high position of the indicators limits the rebound space [69]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the rebound can continue remains to be observed [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [73].