工业硅期货早报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8595 - 8835 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows some recovery but may be weak later, cost support has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50050 - 52550 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level of 302,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 68,200 tons [4]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [4]. - Basis: On January 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week; major port inventory is 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above MA20 [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52 GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 45.2 GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, battery cell production was 46.76 GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 8.92 GW, a 3.36% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 39.36 GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month. In December, component production was 38.7 GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that component production in January will be 32.47 GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month. Domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and European monthly inventory is 31.3 GW, a 5.43% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On January 9th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical high [10]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is below MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have different changes, with the 05 contract rising by 2.11% [16]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract decreasing by 27.07% [16]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month contract and the first - consecutive contract has decreased by 94.32% [16]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts has increased by 0.89% [16]. - Organic silicon and aluminum alloy related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of organic silicon and aluminum alloy [16]. Polysilicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have decreased, with the 05 contract decreasing by 4.31% [18]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract increasing by 95.77% [18]. - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3. Other Aspects - There are also various charts and data analysis on price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the downstream situation of industrial silicon including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [20][26][30]