大越期货PVC期货早报-20260112

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC has increased, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week. The current demand may continue to be sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4851 - 4943. The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth. [8][9][10][13] - The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply Side: In December 2025, PVC output was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide method enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene method enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. It is expected that the maintenance will decrease next week, and the production scheduling will increase slightly. [8] - Demand Side: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous week, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. The current demand may continue to be sluggish. [9] - Cost Side: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 11.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 31.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 1.00% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. [9] - Basis: On January 9th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 197 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. [10] - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. The in - factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. The in - factory inventory of ethylene method was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. [10] - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. [10] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increased. [10] - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the overall cost has strengthened. The supply pressure has increased this week, and it is expected to increase in production scheduling next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may continue to be sluggish. Continuously pay attention to macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2605 will fluctuate in the range of 4851 - 4943. [10] 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, inventory, operating rates, profits, costs, and production volumes of different types of PVC and related products. For example, the price of East China SG - 5 decreased by 0.63% to 4,700 yuan/ton, and the in - factory inventory of calcium carbide method increased by 8.06% to 244,844 tons. [16] 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC, showing the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price from 2022 to 2026. [19] - Futures Price and Volume: The report shows the futures price, volume, and position changes of PVC from December 2025 to January 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, moving averages, and position changes of the top 5/20 seats. [22] - Spread Analysis: The report provides the spread analysis of the main contracts of PVC, showing the spread trends of 1 - 9, 5 - 9, etc. from 2024 to 2025. [25] 3.4 PVC Fundamental Analysis - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda in the calcium carbide method, as well as the cost - profit analysis of chlor - alkali in Shandong and the double - ton price difference. [27][30][32][34][36] - PVC Supply Trend: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, production profits, daily and weekly production volumes, and weekly maintenance volumes of PVC from 2018 to 2026. [38][39][41] - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin of PVC. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion areas of the real estate market, as well as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds issuance, and infrastructure investment (excluding power) year - on - year. [43][44][46][48][50][52] - Inventory: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, in - factory inventories of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises of PVC from 2019 to 2026. [53][54] - Ethylene Method: It shows the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, ethylene method FOB spread (Tianjin - Taiwan), and vinyl chloride import spread (Jiangsu - Far East CIF). [55][56] - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference. [60]