《能源化工》日报-20260112

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Pure Benzene - Styrene - Short - term supply - demand of pure benzene is weak with limited drive, and prices will continue to fluctuate within the range of 5300 - 5600. For benzene - ethylene, short - term price support is strong, but the rebound space and sustainability are limited. Suggest to wait and see on the long side and focus on short - selling opportunities for EB03 [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - In Q1, the supply - demand of PX and PTA is expected to weaken. PX prices will fluctuate between 7000 - 7500 in the short - term and can be considered for long positions in the medium - term. PTA will fluctuate between 5000 - 5300 in the short - term and can also be considered for long positions in the medium - term [2]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE, the marginal supply of the standard product is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. For PP, supply and demand are both weak, but the balance has improved significantly, and it is short - term strong [3]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices maintain a range - bound trend. Geopolitical premiums support price rebounds, but the increase is limited under the weak supply - demand expectation. Pay attention to the pressure around 65 dollars per barrel for Brent [5]. LPG Industry No clear core view provided in the given content. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak - based shock pattern. Glass has good short - term shipments and inventory reduction, but there are still supply - demand pressures [10]. Methanol Industry - Inland prices are expected to fluctuate, and port prices are restricted by the low profit of methanol - to - olefins and potential MTO device maintenance [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda prices are expected to continue to be stable and weak. PVC supply - demand remains weak, and short - term pessimism may drag down the price [16]. Urea Industry - Urea prices are suppressed by weak supply - demand. Without new stimuli, they may fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to device restart and downstream demand [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate between 15500 - 16500, supported by raw material prices below and suppressed by weak demand above [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton. Pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.3% [1]. - Benzene - Ethylene Related Prices and Spreads: Benzene - ethylene spot price in East China rose 1.6% to 7000 yuan per ton, and EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased 42.1% [1]. - Downstream Cash Flows: Aniline cash flow increased 18.6%, while EPS cash flow decreased 183.3% [1]. - Inventory: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased 6.0%, and benzene - ethylene inventory decreased 4.7% [1]. - 开工率变化: Asian pure benzene operating rate decreased 1.3%, and domestic benzene - ethylene operating rate increased 0.6% [1]. Polyester Industry Chain - Upstream Prices: Brent crude oil rose 2.2% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and CFR Japan naphtha rose 1.8% to 551 dollars per ton [2]. - PTA - related Prices and Spreads: PTA spot price in East China decreased 0.7% to 5035 yuan per ton, and PTA spot processing fee decreased 16.6% [2]. - MEG - related Prices and Spreads: MEG spot price in East China decreased 0.5% to 3697 yuan per ton, and MEG import profit decreased 17.4% [2]. - Inventory and Arrival Forecast: MEG port inventory decreased 0.7% to 72.5 million tons, and MEG arrival forecast increased 66.4% to 17.8 million tons [2]. - 开工率: Asian PX operating rate increased 0.4%, and PTA operating rate increased 0.1% [2]. Polyolefin Industry - Futures Prices: L2605 closed at 6674 yuan per ton, up 0.69%, and PP2605 closed at 6514 yuan per ton, up 0.46% [3]. - 现货价格: East China PP spot price rose 0.32% to 6300 yuan per ton, and North China LLDPE spot price rose 0.62% to 6520 yuan per ton [3]. - 库存: PE enterprise inventory increased 6.66% to 39.54 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased 4.69% to 46.77 million tons [3]. - 开工率: PE device operating rate increased 0.52% to 83.67%, and PP device operating rate decreased 1.65% to 75.47% [3]. Crude Oil Industry - 原油价格及价差: Brent rose 2.18% to 63.34 dollars per barrel, and WTI rose 2.35% to 59.12 dollars per barrel [5]. - 成品油价格及价差: NYM RBOB rose 1.15% to 178.06 cents per gallon, and ICE Gasoil rose 3.69% to 631.75 dollars per ton [5]. - 成品油裂解价差: US gasoline cracking spread decreased 3.14%, and European gasoline cracking spread increased 8.70% [5]. LPG Industry - LPG价格及价差: PG2602 rose 0.52% to 4221 yuan per ton, and PG02 - 03 spread decreased 11.46% [8]. - LPG外盘价格: FEI swap M1 contract rose 2.09% to 513.50 dollars per ton, and CP swap M1 contract rose 1.06% to 522.50 dollars per ton [8]. - 库存: LPG refinery storage ratio decreased 1.94% to 23.8%, and LPG port inventory decreased 0.41% to 213 million tons [8]. - 开工率: Upstream - main refinery operating rate increased 2.49% to 76.98%, and downstream - PDH operating rate increased 0.68% to 75.6% [8]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - 玻璃相关价格及价差: North China glass quote remained unchanged at 1020 yuan per ton, and glass 2601 decreased 0.30% to 1010 yuan per ton [10]. - 纯碱相关价格及价差: Northwest soda ash quote rose 2.33% to 880 yuan per ton, and soda ash 2601 decreased 1.30% to 1141 yuan per ton [10]. - 供应: Soda ash operating rate rose 5.93% to 84.70%, and float glass daily melting volume decreased 0.92% to 15.01 million tons [10]. - 库存: Glass factory inventory decreased 5.69% to 5551.80 million weight boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased 4.25% to 157.25 million tons [10]. Methanol Industry - 甲醇价格及价差: MA2605 closed at 2273 yuan per ton, up 1.88%, and MA59 spread increased 150.00% to 2 [11]. - 库存: Methanol enterprise inventory increased 5.94% to 44.768 million tons, and methanol port inventory increased 4.05% to 153.7 million tons [12]. - 开工率: Upstream - domestic enterprise operating rate increased 0.54% to 78.09%, and downstream - MTO device operating rate decreased 0.59% to 78.88% [13]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - PVC、烧碱现货&期货: Shandong 32% caustic soda price remained unchanged at 2150 yuan per ton, and East China PVC market price decreased 0.6% to 4620 yuan per ton [16]. - 烧碱海外报价&出口利润: FOB East China port price decreased 1.4% to 350 dollars per ton, and export profit increased 23.6% to 216.5 yuan per ton [16]. - PVC海外报价&出口利润: CFR Southeast Asia price rose 1.7% to 610 dollars per ton, and export profit decreased 12.3% to - 8.8 yuan per ton [16]. - 供给: Caustic soda operating rate increased 0.4% to 88.9%, and PVC total operating rate increased 2.0% to 78.9% [16]. - 需求: Alumina industry operating rate increased 0.1% to 80.5%, and PVC downstream product operating rate showed mixed trends [16]. - 库存: Caustic soda inventory in East China factories increased 1.8% to 23.4 million tons, and PVC total social inventory increased 4.0% to 54.6 million tons [16]. Urea Industry - 期货价格: Urea 01 contract closed at 1690 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - 现货价格: Shandong small - particle urea price decreased 0.57% to 1750 yuan per ton [17]. - 供需面概览: Domestic urea daily production rose 0.55% to 20.06 million tons, and domestic urea plant inventory increased 0.29% to 102.22 million tons [17]. Natural Rubber Industry - 现货价格及基差: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex rubber price in Shanghai decreased 0.95% to 15700 yuan per ton, and the whole - latex basis decreased 22.22% to - 330 yuan per ton [18]. - 月间价差: 9 - 1 spread increased 100.00% to 0 [18]. - 生产及开工率: November Thai rubber production decreased 9.39% to 466.20 thousand tons, and automobile tire semi - steel tire operating rate decreased 2.36% to 65.89% [18]. - 库存变化: Bonded area inventory increased 4.48% to 548344 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE remained unchanged [18].