期货价格变动大，市场应重回供需研究

Investment Rating - The report suggests an optimistic outlook for thermal power, particularly with Tianjin's adjustment of capacity price from RMB 100 to RMB 231 per kilowatt annually, exceeding the expected RMB 165 [4]. Core Insights - The market should refocus on supply and demand dynamics, as recent trends show rising coal prices and falling polysilicon futures, indicating that the economic fundamentals remain unchanged [4]. - There is an excess in new energy supply and early thermal power startups are putting pressure on electricity prices, with national utilization rates for wind and solar power showing slight declines [5]. - The report highlights significant month-on-month declines in real-time average electricity prices in Heilongjiang and Fujian, suggesting discrepancies in forecast data and operational patterns [5]. Supply and Demand Analysis - National utilization rates for wind power were 93.1% in November, down from 96.4% in October, while solar power utilization was 93.7%, down from 94.8% [5]. - In December, Heilongjiang's real-time average electricity price was RMB 56.8/MWh, a 57% decrease, while Fujian's was RMB 93.0/MWh, a 44% decrease, indicating a divergence in expected pricing trends [5]. Energy Storage Policies - Hubei's energy storage capacity pricing policy sets the 2026 capacity price at RMB 165/kW·year, with provisions for low charge/discharge cycles affecting fee recovery [6]. - By 2025, Xinjiang's new storage capacity is projected to reach 20.15 million kW, with significant charging and discharging metrics outlined for both 2024 and 2025 [6]. Market Dynamics in Anhui - Anhui's electricity spot market experienced zero price fluctuation on two occasions, indicating a favorable supply-demand balance, with many companies yet to engage in market transactions [7]. Inter-Provincial Trading Growth - The inter-provincial trading volume reached 1.3 trillion kWh in 2025, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, with clean energy trading also showing significant increases [8].