大越期货豆粕早报-20260112

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Soybean Meal (M2605): It is expected to oscillate between 2750 and 2810. The US soybean market has a short - term return to a volatile pattern due to China's soybean purchases and technical adjustments. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean market and demand improvement. With the approaching of the year - end demand peak season and the premium of spot prices, the market may maintain a volatile pattern in the short term due to mixed news [9]. - For Soybean (A2605): It is predicted to fluctuate between 4300 and 4400. The US soybean market awaits the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and weather conditions in South American production areas. The domestic soybean market is affected by state - reserve auctions, the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival of Brazilian soybeans. The spot price support and various factors lead to an expected short - term volatile trend [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the report. 3.2 Recent News - The China - US tariff negotiation has reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans. However, the quantity of China's soybean purchases and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market oscillates above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean growth, harvest, and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With relatively normal weather for soybean planting and growth in South America, soybean meal has returned to a range - bound pattern. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal remains good in January, supporting the price expectation. The interaction between the impact of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains high. There is still a possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean production areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement makes soybean meal maintain a short - term range - bound pattern, waiting for the clarification of US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [12]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - Bullish Factors: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills has no pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean production areas. - Bearish Factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in January remains high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [13]. 3.3.2 Soybean - Bullish Factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation. - Bearish Factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans. - Main Logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the tariff game in China - US trade [14]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From December 30 to January 9, the成交均价 of soybean meal fluctuated between 3144 and 3188, and the trading volume varied from 8.1 to 48.69 million tons. The成交均价 of rapeseed meal was between 2520 and 2570, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.8 million tons on January 8. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 584 and 666 [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Price Data: From December 31 to January 9, the futures prices of soybean No.1 (A2605) fluctuated between 4241 and 4404, and the spot price in Jiamusi was between 4220 and 4360. The futures prices of soybean No.2 (A2605) were between 3459 and 3536, and the Brazilian - sourced spot price was between 3520 and 3550. The futures prices of soybean meal (M2605) were between 2749 and 2811, and the spot price in Jiangsu was between 3050 and 3110 [17]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data: From December 29 to January 9, the soybean No.1 warehouse receipts fluctuated between 18088 and 26046, the soybean No.2 warehouse receipts were mostly 400 after January 5, and the soybean meal warehouse receipts were between 24780 and 25480 [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets show the changes in harvest area, initial inventory, output, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024 [31][32]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress in Different Countries: In 2023/24, Argentina's soybean planting and harvest progress is presented. In 2024, the US soybean's planting, growth, and harvest progress are detailed, including sowing progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, harvest rate, and good - quality rate. In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvest progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are provided [33][34][38]. - USDA's Recent Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: From May to December 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume of US soybeans, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans, are reported [43]. 3.5 Position Data - Soybean Meal: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out, indicating a bearish signal [9]. - Soybean: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out, showing a bullish signal [10]. 3.6 Other Related Data and Information - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, with an overall year - on - year growth [46]. - Oil Mill Data: The soybean processing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level. The soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The soybean inventory of oil mills has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains high. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the stocking demand has a good expectation [47][49][51]. - Brazilian Soybean Import Cost: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has declined following the oscillation of US soybeans, and the on - paper profit has fluctuated slightly [53]. - Pig - Farming Data: The pig inventory has been on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and has a slight month - on - month decline. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit has fluctuated slightly [55][57][59].