铝产业周报-20260112

Core View - For aluminum, on the supply side, there are still electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Inner Mongolia dismantling, and the theoretical starting capacity of the industry is expected to continue to increase; on the demand side, demand is growing steadily, and there may be some production cuts in the short term, but the tight supply - demand situation supports prices. Industry profits remain high, and low inventory is still the key support for prices. Overseas macro - situation and macro factors may continue to support aluminum prices, and the market is currently showing a strong and high - level shock [3]. - For alumina, in terms of supply, short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall, alumina supply is still in surplus, and fundamental negative factors still exist. On the demand side, the demand growth rate has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively certain. Currently, the starting capacity of alumina enterprises remains high, and as the enterprise quotation center has shifted upward, the procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, so the inventory in alumina plants has increased. There are still short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Grouped by Content Aluminum Market - Price and Position: Information on the closing price and position of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract and LME aluminum (3 - month) is presented, including price in yuan/ton and position in hands [5]. - Supply: Inner Mongolia has electrolytic aluminum enterprise dismantling, and the industry's theoretical starting capacity is expected to increase. The ceiling policy for domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is clear, and global supply elasticity is insufficient. Cost - side factors such as scarce scrap aluminum and power support also affect supply [3][8]. - Demand: Demand is growing steadily, but there may be short - term production cuts. Downstream has certain production cut plans, and the procurement willingness of processing enterprises is low [3][8]. - Market Situation: The market is in a high - level and strong shock state. Low inventory and overseas macro - factors support the price [3]. Alumina Market - Price and Position: Information on the closing price and position of the alumina futures main contract, as well as alumina monthly spreads, is provided [16][17]. - Supply: Short - term phased supply has decreased, but overall supply is still in surplus. Some regional alumina enterprises have elastic production due to profit losses, and domestic new alumina production capacity will gradually show supply pressure [4][9]. - Demand: Demand growth has slowed down, and the ceiling of downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is certain. The procurement willingness of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has decreased, and the inventory in alumina plants has increased [4]. - Market Situation: There are short - term policy expectations, and the short - term price bottom may gradually emerge [4]. Upstream Supply - Bauxite: Information on China's bauxite national monthly production, import volume, port inventory, and production by province is presented, including seasonal data [22][23]. - Alumina: Data on China's alumina monthly production, production by main origin, weekly starting rate, import volume, and import profit and loss are provided, including seasonal data [24][30][31]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: Information on global and China's electrolytic aluminum monthly production, China's electrolytic aluminum weekly production, and net import is given, including seasonal data [32][33]. - Inventory: Data on aluminum ingot, aluminum rod, and their combined weekly outbound volume, as well as various inventory data such as aluminum bauxite, alumina, and electrolytic aluminum, are presented, including seasonal data [35][62][65][67]. Downstream Demand - Product Output: Seasonal data on the output of aluminum rods, profiles, plates, foils, and primary aluminum alloy ingots are provided [39]. - Starting Rate: Seasonal data on the weekly and monthly starting rates of various aluminum products are presented, including aluminum plates, foils, and profiles [40][47]. - Export: Seasonal data on the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products and China's aluminum product export profit are provided [49][51]. - Related Industries: Data on related industries such as real estate (housing start - completion area, fixed - asset investment), automotive (automobile and new - energy vehicle production), and power (grid and power source project investment, photovoltaic installation) are presented, including seasonal data [52][55][58][61]. Cost and Profit - Raw Material Price: Prices of domestic and imported bauxite, 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda, pre - baked anodes, power coal, Dutch natural gas, and European electricity prices are presented [71][72]. - Cost and Profit: Data on alumina cost and China's electrolytic aluminum cost and profit are provided [71][72].